Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Nissen, Cara; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Brooks, Cassandra M.; Hoppema, Mario; Timmermann, Ralph; Hauck, Judith

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44438-x

Title: Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Journal Article · 03 January 2024 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44438-x · OSTI ID:2472060

^[1];

^[2]; Brooks, Cassandra M. ^[2];

^[3]; Timmermann, Ralph ^[3];

^[3]

University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Alfred Wegener Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany); OSTI
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Alfred Wegener Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany)

Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.

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Research Organization:: University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme; Helmholtz Association; Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association; USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022243

OSTI ID:: 2472060

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 15; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Breaking All the Rules: The First Recorded Hard Substrate Sessile Benthic Community Far Beneath an Antarctic Ice Shelf Griffiths, Huw J.; Anker, Paul; Linse, Katrin Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.642040	journal	February 2021
Physical and biological controls on anthropogenic CO2 sink of the Ross Sea Ingrosso, Gianmarco; Giani, Michele; Kralj, Martina Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 9 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.954059	journal	September 2022
Climate change feedback on the future oceanic CO₂ uptake Matear, Richard J.; Hirst, Anthony C. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 51, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v51i3.16472	journal	January 1999
Sensitivity of Antarctic phytoplankton species to ocean acidification: Growth, carbon acquisition, and species interaction Trimborn, Scarlett; Brenneis, Tina; Sweet, Elizabeth Limnology and Oceanography, Vol. 58, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2013.58.3.0997	journal	May 2013
Ocean acidification of a coastal Antarctic marine microbial community reveals a critical threshold for CO 2 tolerance in phytoplankton productivity Deppeler, Stacy; Petrou, Katherina; Schulz, Kai G. Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-209-2018	journal	January 2018
Ocean acidification changes the structure of an Antarctic coastal protistan community Hancock, Alyce M.; Davidson, Andrew T.; McKinlay, John Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2393-2018	journal	April 2018
Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections Kwiatkowski, Lester; Torres, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent Biogeosciences, Vol. 17, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020	journal	January 2020
Factors controlling the competition between Phaeocystis and diatoms in the Southern Ocean and implications for carbon export fluxes Nissen, Cara; Vogt, Meike Biogeosciences, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-251-2021	journal	January 2021
A global, high-resolution data set of ice sheet topography, cavity geometry, and ocean bathymetry Schaffer, Janin; Timmermann, Ralph; Arndt, Jan Erik Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-543-2016	journal	January 2016
Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6) Meinshausen, Malte; Vogel, Elisabeth; Nauels, Alexander Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017	journal	January 2017
The Finite Element Sea Ice-Ocean Model (FESOM) v.1.4: formulation of an ocean general circulation model Wang, Q.; Danilov, S.; Sidorenko, D. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-663-2014	journal	January 2014
Finite-Element Sea Ice Model (FESIM), version 2 Danilov, S.; Wang, Q.; Timmermann, R. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1747-2015	journal	January 2015
Improved routines to model the ocean carbonate system: mocsy 2.0 Orr, J. C.; Epitalon, J. -M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-485-2015	journal	January 2015
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016	journal	January 2016
Variability and stability of anthropogenic CO₂ in Antarctic Bottom Water observed in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, 1978–2018 Mahieu, Léo; Lo Monaco, Claire; Metzl, Nicolas Ocean Science, Vol. 16, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1559-2020	journal	December 2020
FESOM-REcoM model data: Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas Nissen, Cara; Lovenduski, Nicole; Brooks, Cassandra Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10291936	dataset	January 2023
Changing biogeochemistry of the Southern Ocean and its ecosystem implications Henley, Sian Frances; Cavan, Emma Louise; Fawcett, Sarah E. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3883618	dataset	January 2020

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