Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States

Mallela, Abhishek; Chen, Ye; Lin, Yen Ting; Miller, Ely F.; Neumann, Jacob; He, Zhili; Nelson, Kathryn E.; Posner, Richard G.; Hlavacek, William Scott

doi:10.1007/s11538-024-01258-4

Title: Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States

Journal Article · 14 February 2024 · Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01258-4 · OSTI ID:2467364

^[1]; Chen, Ye ^[2];

^[1]; Miller, Ely F. ^[2]; Neumann, Jacob ^[2]; He, Zhili ^[2]; Nelson, Kathryn E. ^[2]; Posner, Richard G. ^[2];

^[1]

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. In conclusion, estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 2467364

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--23-20477

Journal Information:: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Journal Name: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 86; ISSN 0092-8240

Publisher:: Society for Mathematical Biology - SpringerCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
Bayesian inference
Biological Science
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
SARS-CoV-2 variant Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7)
SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
mathematical model
vaccination

Title: Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States

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