Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Hadjimichael, Antonia; Reed, Patrick M.; Quinn, Julianne D.; Vernon, Chris R.; Thurber, Travis B.

doi:10.1029/2023ef004252

Title: Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Journal Article · 19 September 2024 · Earth's Future

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004252 · OSTI ID:2460520

^[1];

^[2]; Quinn, Julianne D. ^[3];

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Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Earth and Environmental Systems Inst. (EESI)
Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2460520

Journal Information:: Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 12; ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

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