A New Ecosystem Model for Arctic Phytoplankton Phenology From Ice‐Covered to Open‐Water Periods: Implications for Future Sea Ice Retreat Scenarios
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- Center for Ocean Engineering University of New Hampshire Durham NH USA
- Insitute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire Durham NH USA
- Geosciences Research Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USA
- Moss Landing Marine Laboratories San José State University Moss Landing CA USA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA, Center for Global Change Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA
- Center for Ocean Engineering University of New Hampshire Durham NH USA, Department of Earth Science University of New Hampshire Durham NH USA
Abstract To predict ecosystem change in the Arctic Ocean, understanding Arctic phytoplankton phenology is essential. We develop a marine ecosystem model focusing on phytoplankton dynamics and the competition for multiple resources based on knowledge from in situ data obtained in the Chukchi Sea. The model is designed to include the unique ecological characteristics of the Arctic Ocean. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model successfully simulating the current paradigm for Arctic phytoplankton phenology, including both under‐ice blooms and succession of phytoplankton groups. Sensitivity experiments show that the dominance of diatoms can be sustained by lateral transport of a high‐silicate water mass (Pacific Winter Water). Experiments for future scenarios show that sea ice retreat drives a decrease in large diatoms and an increase in the other relatively small non‐diatom groups. These results suggest that dominant phytoplankton groups can be shifted from diatoms to non‐diatoms under ongoing Arctic Ocean sea ice retreat.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- NONE; EE0009450
- OSTI ID:
- 2449659
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 19 Vol. 51; ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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