Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion
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- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA, Now at: Science and Analytics Team The Freshwater Trust Portland OR USA
- Alaska Ecoscience Fairbanks AK USA
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment University of Connecticut Storrs CT USA
- Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam Germany, Institute of Geosciences University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam Germany, Department of Geography Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin Berlin Germany
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam Germany
- Woodwell Climate Research Center Falmouth MA USA
- Beacom College of Computer and Cyber Sciences Dakota State University Madison SD USA
Abstract One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km 2 each, or 400 km 2 in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- OSTI ID:
- 2447010
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 129; ISSN 2169-9003
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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