Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

Danso, Derrick K.; Patricola, Christina M.

doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ad7351

Title: Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

Journal Article · 16 September 2024 · Environmental Research Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad7351 · OSTI ID:2441478

^[1];

^[2]

Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

In this study, we investigated whether and how the storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina could change if it occurs in a future warmer climate, and the sensitivity of the changes to atmospheric forcing resolution. Climate model simulations of Hurricane Katrina at 27 km, 4.5 km, and 3 km resolutions were used to drive storm surge simulations in historical and future climates using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. We found that peak surge height increased significantly in the future with all forcing resolutions. However, the future projection is 22% greater in the 3 km forcing, typical of regional climate models, compared to the 27 km forcing, typical of state-of-the-art global climate models. Additionally, the spatial extent of the future change is highly sensitive to forcing resolution, extending most broadly under the 27 km forcing. Furthermore, we found that storm surge duration decreases in the future with all forcing resolutions due to increasing TC translation speed and decreasing ocean lifetime. However, the future change in the surge duration is sensitive to the forcing resolution, decreasing by 31% in the 27 km forcing and 6% in the 3 km forcing.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth And Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; SC0021109

OSTI ID:: 2441478

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Communications, Journal Name: Environmental Research Communications Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 6; ISSN 2515-7620

Publisher:: IOP ScienceCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (55)

Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape: BILSKIE ET AL. Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058759	journal	February 2014
A teleconnection between Atlantic sea surface temperature and eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones: Atlantic SST/Pacific TC Teleconnection Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071965	journal	January 2017
Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models Davis, C. A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076966	journal	February 2018
Dependence of model convergence on horizontal resolution and convective parameterization in simulations of a tropical cyclone at gray‐zone resolutions Sun, Yuan; Yi, Lan; Zhong, Zhong Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50606	journal	July 2013
Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts Bloemendaal, Nadia; Muis, Sanne; Haarsma, Reindert J. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4430-x	journal	September 2018
Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900 Irish, Jennifer L.; Sleath, Alison; Cialone, Mary A. Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1011-1	journal	December 2013
Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model Bacmeister, Julio T.; Reed, Kevin A.; Hannay, Cecile Climatic Change, Vol. 146, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x	journal	August 2016
Performance of the Unstructured-Mesh, SWAN+ADCIRC Model in Computing Hurricane Waves and Surge Dietrich, J. C.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, J. J. Journal of Scientific Computing, Vol. 52, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10915-011-9555-6	journal	November 2011
Tropical cyclone wind field forcing for surge models: critical issues and sensitivities Cardone, V. J.; Cox, A. T. Natural Hazards, Vol. 51, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9369-0	journal	March 2009
Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Dube, S. K.; Jain, Indu; Rao, A. D. Natural Hazards, Vol. 51, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9397-9	journal	May 2009
Effects of hurricane forward speed and approach angle on storm surges: an idealized numerical experiment Zhang, Chenguang; Li, Chunyan Acta Oceanologica Sinica, Vol. 38, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-018-1081-z	journal	July 2019
Impact of changes in sea surface temperature due to climate change on hurricane wind and storm surge hazards across US Atlantic and Gulf coast regions Salarieh, Babak; Ugwu, Izuchukwu A.; Salman, Abdullahi M. SN Applied Sciences, Vol. 5, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-023-05423-7	journal	July 2023
Influence of bathymetric fluctuations on coastal storm surge Weaver, R. J.; Slinn, D. N. Coastal Engineering, Vol. 57, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.09.012	journal	January 2010
Characterizing hurricane storm surge behavior in Galveston Bay using the SWAN+ADCIRC model Sebastian, Antonia; Proft, Jennifer; Dietrich, J. Casey Coastal Engineering, Vol. 88 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.03.002	journal	June 2014
How do uncertainties in hurricane model forecasts affect storm surge predictions in a semi-enclosed bay? Zhong, Liejun; Li, Ming; Zhang, Da-Lin Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 90, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2010.07.001	journal	December 2010
Potential impact of sea level rise on coastal surges in southeast Louisiana Smith, Jane McKee; Cialone, Mary A.; Wamsley, Ty V. Ocean Engineering, Vol. 37, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.07.008	journal	January 2010
Data assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) modeling framework for the estimation of Manning’s friction coefficient Mayo, Talea; Butler, Troy; Dawson, Clint Ocean Modelling, Vol. 76 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.01.001	journal	April 2014
Influence of storm timing and forward speed on tides and storm surge during Hurricane Matthew Thomas, Ajimon; Dietrich, Jc; Asher, Tg Ocean Modelling, Vol. 137 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.03.004	journal	May 2019
Nonlinear terms in storm surge predictions: Effect of tide and shelf geometry with case study from Hurricane Rita Rego, João L.; Li, Chunyan Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue C6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005285	journal	January 2010
Impact of Approach Angle of an Impinging Cyclone on Generation of Storm Surges and Its Interaction with Tides and Wind Waves Pandey, Smita; Rao, A. D. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 124, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015433	journal	November 2019
Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate Shimura, T.; Pringle, W. J.; Mori, N. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097427	journal	March 2022
Role of Tropical Cyclones in Determining ENSO Characteristics Li, Hui; Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 50, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101814	journal	March 2023
Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models Schär, Christoph; Frei, Christoph; Lüthi, Daniel Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 23, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL00265	journal	March 1996
A new view on sea level rise Rahmstorf, Stefan Nature Climate Change, Vol. 1, Issue 1004 https://doi.org/10.1038/climate.2010.29	journal	April 2010
Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Oppenheimer, Michael Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1389	journal	February 2012
Tropical cyclones and climate change Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779	journal	February 2010
Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns Marsooli, Reza; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z	journal	August 2019
Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity Fu, Dan; Chang, Ping; Patricola, Christina M. Nature Communications, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24657-w	journal	July 2021
A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed Kossin, James P. Nature, Vol. 558, Issue 7708 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0158-3	journal	June 2018
Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events Patricola, Christina M.; Wehner, Michael F. Nature, Vol. 563, Issue 7731 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0673-2	journal	November 2018
Climate change impact on hurricane storm surge hazards in New York/New Jersey Coastlines using machine-learning Ayyad, Mahmoud; Hajj, Muhammad R.; Marsooli, Reza npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00420-4	journal	July 2023
A Real Time Storm Surge Forecasting System Using ADCIRC Fleming, Jason G.; Fulcher, Crystal W.; Luettich, Richard A. Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (2007) https://doi.org/10.1061/40990(324)48	conference	August 2008
Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective Kates, R. W.; Colten, C. E.; Laska, S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 103, Issue 40 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605726103	journal	September 2006
Future changes in extreme storm surges based on mega-ensemble projection using 60-km resolution atmospheric global circulation model Mori, Nobuhito; Shimura, Tomoya; Yoshida, Kohei Coastal Engineering Journal, Vol. 61, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2019.1586290	journal	March 2019
Simulation of cyclone‐induced storm surges in the low‐lying delta of Bangladesh using coupled hydrodynamic and wave model (SWAN + ADCIRC) Deb, M.; Ferreira, C. M. Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol. 11, Issue S2 https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12254	journal	June 2016
Efficient Inverse Modeling of Barotropic Ocean Tides Egbert, Gary D.; Erofeeva, Svetlana Y. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0183:EIMOBO>2.0.CO;2	journal	February 2002
New York City's Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding: Storm Surge Modeling of Past Cyclones Colle, Brian A.; Buonaiuto, Frank; Bowman, Malcolm J. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 89, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007BAMS2401.1	journal	June 2008
A Basin- to Channel-Scale Unstructured Grid Hurricane Storm Surge Model Applied to Southern Louisiana Westerink, Joannes J.; Luettich, Richard A.; Feyen, Jesse C. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1946.1	journal	March 2008
A High-Resolution Coupled Riverine Flow, Tide, Wind, Wind Wave, and Storm Surge Model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Part II: Synoptic Description and Analysis of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Dietrich, J. C.; Bunya, S.; Westerink, J. J. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 138, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2907.1	journal	February 2010
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Saha, Suranjana; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Pan, Hua-Lu Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 91, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1	journal	August 2010
Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts? Davis, Christopher; Wang, Wei; Dudhia, Jimy Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 25, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222423.1	journal	December 2010
An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size and Storm Surge Heights along the U.S. Gulf Coast Needham, Hal F.; Keim, Barry D. Earth Interactions, Vol. 18, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2013EI000558.1	journal	March 2014
Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: New Data and Interpretation Rappaport, Edward N. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 95, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00074.1	journal	March 2014
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming Knutson, Thomas; Camargo, Suzana J.; Chan, Johnny C. L. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1	journal	March 2020
Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model Bhatia, Kieran; Vecchi, Gabriel; Murakami, Hiroyuki Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0898.1	journal	October 2018
Impact of Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Simulation Using the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA Multimodel Ensemble Roberts, Malcolm John; Camp, Joanne; Seddon, Jon Journal of Climate, Vol. 33, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0639.1	journal	April 2020
Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting Butler, T.; Altaf, M. U.; Dawson, C. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 140, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00118.1	journal	July 2012
The Practical Predictability of Storm Tide from Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico Fossell, Kathryn R.; Ahijevych, David; Morss, Rebecca E. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 145, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0051.1	journal	December 2017
An Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using COAMPS-TC Jin, Hao; Peng, Melinda S.; Jin, Yi Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 29, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00054.1	journal	April 2014
Using a WRF-ADCIRC Ensemble and Track Clustering to Investigate Storm Surge Hazards and Inundation Scenarios Associated with Hurricane Irma Kowaleski, Alex M.; Morss, Rebecca E.; Ahijevych, David Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 35, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0169.1	journal	August 2020
Mesh Development, Tidal Validation, and Hindcast Skill Assessment of an ADCIRC Model for the Hurricane Storm Surge Operational Forecast System on the US Gulf-Atlantic Coast Aecom, Riverside Technology, Inc. , & The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill University Libraries https://doi.org/10.17615/4z19-y130	text	January 2015
Projected Climate Change Impacts on Hurricane Storm Surge Inundation in the Coastal United States Camelo, Jeane; Mayo, Talea L.; Gutmann, Ethan D. Frontiers in Built Environment, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2020.588049	journal	December 2020
Effect of Bottom Friction, Wind Drag Coefficient, and Meteorological Forcing in Hindcast of Hurricane Rita Storm Surge Using SWAN + ADCIRC Model Akbar, Muhammad; Kanjanda, Simbarashe; Musinguzi, Abram Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030038	journal	August 2017
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016	journal	January 2016
Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States Sweet, William V.; Kopp, Robert; Weaver, Christopher P. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services https://doi.org/10.7289/V5/TR-NOS-COOPS-083	text	January 2017

Similar Records

Simulation of Hurricane Katrina at 3km resolution

Program Document · 2018 · OSTI ID:1489690

Patricola, Christina

Simulation of Hurricane Katrina at 3km resolution

Multimedia · 2018 · OSTI ID:1668819

Patricola, Christina

Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation

Journal Article · 2016 · Natural Hazards · OSTI ID:1333449

Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping; +2 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

Citation Formats

References (55)

Similar Records

Related Subjects