Current inequality and future potential of US urban tree cover for reducing heat-related health impacts

Journal Article · 08 April 2024 · npj Urban Sustainability

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-024-00150-3 · OSTI ID:2438470

McDonald, Robert I. ^[1]; Biswas, Tanushree ^[2]; Chakraborty, Tirthankar C. ^[3]; Kroeger, Timm  ^[4]; Cook-Patton, Susan C.  ^[4]; Fargione, Joseph E.  ^[5]

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1. Nature Conservancy in Europe, Berlin (Germany); City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (United States). CUNY Institute for Demographic Research; Humboldt Univ. of Berlin (Germany)
2. Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA (United States)
3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
4. Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States)
5. Nature Conservancy, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

Excessive heat is a major and growing risk for urban residents. Here, we estimate the inequality in summertime heat-related mortality, morbidity, and electricity consumption across 5723 US municipalities and other places, housing 180 million people during the 2020 census. On average, trees in majority non-Hispanic white neighborhoods cool the air by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C more than in POC neighborhoods, leading annually to trees in white neighborhoods helping prevent 190 ± 139 more deaths, 30,131 ± 10,406 more doctors’ visits, and 1.4 ± 0.5 terawatt-hours (TWhr) more electricity consumption than in POC neighborhoods. We estimate that an ambitious reforestation program would require 1.2 billion trees and reduce population-weighted average summer temperatures by an additional 0.38 ± 0.01 °C. This temperature reduction would reduce annual heat-related mortality by an additional 464 ± 89 people, annual heat-related morbidity by 80,785 ± 6110 cases, and annual electricity consumption by 4.3 ± 0.2 TWhr, while increasing annual carbon sequestration in trees by 23.7 ± 1.2 MtCO₂e yr^-1 and decreasing annual electricity-related GHG emissions by 2.1 ± 0.2 MtCO₂e yr^-1. The total economic value of these benefits, including the value of carbon sequestration and avoided emissions, would be USD 9.6 ± 0.5 billion, although in many neighborhoods the cost of planting and maintaining trees to achieve this increased tree cover would exceed these benefits. The exception is areas that currently have less tree cover, often the majority POC, which tend to have a relatively high return on investment from tree planting.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 2438470
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA--193688
• Journal Information: npj Urban Sustainability, Journal Name: npj Urban Sustainability Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 4; ISSN 2661-8001
• Publisher: Springer NatureCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English