Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation

Hogan, Daniel; Lundquist, Jessica D.

doi:10.1029/2024GL109826

Title: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation

Journal Article · 16 August 2024 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109826 · OSTI ID:2429771

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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Seattle WA USA

Abstract Colorado River streamflow has decreased 19% since 2000. Spring (March‐April‐May) weather strongly influences Upper Colorado River streamflow because it controls not only water input but also when snow melts and how much energy is available for evaporation when soils are wettest. Since 2000, spring precipitation decreased by 14% on average across 26 unregulated headwater basins, but this decrease did not fully account for the reduced streamflow. In drier springs, increases in energy from reduced cloud cover, and lowered surface albedo from earlier snow disappearance, coincided with potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases of up to 10%. Combining spring precipitation decreases with PET increases accounted for 67% of the variance in post‐2000 streamflow deficits. Streamflow deficits were most substantial in lower elevation basins (<2,950 m), where snowmelt occurred earliest, and precipitation declines were largest. Refining seasonal spring precipitation forecasts is imperative for future water availability predictions in this snow‐dominated water resource region.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0024075

OSTI ID:: 2429771

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 51; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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