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Title: statemodify: a Python framework to facilitate accessible exploratory modeling for discovering drought vulnerabilities

Journal Article · · Journal of Open Source Software

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is experiencing an unprecedented water shortage crisis brought upon by a combination of factors arising from interactions across the region’s coupled human and natural systems. Allocation of water to the seven states that rely on the Colorado River was settled in the Colorado River Compact of 1922 during a period now known to be characterized by atypically high flows (Christensen et al., 2004). Since then, aridification due to anthropogenic-driven warming has steadily reduced the overall water supply available in the basin, with a 10% decrease in the river’s flow occurring over just the past two decades (Bass et al., 2023). The river is further strained by increasing demands associated with a growing population and diverse multi-sectoral demands. Navigating these challenges also requires accounting for the complex prior appropriation water rights system governing water allocation across the region’s diverse users.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
2428971
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--194000
Journal Information:
Journal of Open Source Software, Journal Name: Journal of Open Source Software Journal Issue: 96 Vol. 9; ISSN 2475-9066
Publisher:
Open Source Initiative - NumFOCUSCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (15)

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty book January 2019
Climate-change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Upper Colorado River Basin journal March 2015
California's food-energy-water system: An open source simulation model of adaptive surface and groundwater management in the Central Valley journal July 2021
The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin journal January 2004
Defining Robustness, Vulnerabilities, and Consequential Scenarios for Diverse Stakeholder Interests in Institutionally Complex River Basins journal July 2020
Advancing Diagnostic Model Evaluation to Better Understand Water Shortage Mechanisms in Institutionally Complex River Basins journal October 2020
How Will Baseflow Respond to Climate Change in the Upper Colorado River Basin? journal November 2021
Aridification of Colorado River Basin's Snowpack Regions Has Driven Water Losses Despite Ameliorating Effects of Vegetation journal July 2023
CalSim: Generalized Model for Reservoir System Analysis journal November 2004
Coping with the Wickedness of Public Policy Problems: Approaches for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty journal March 2016
A new decision sciences for complex systems journal May 2002
Dealing With Uncertainty in Policy Analysis and Policymaking journal March 2003
WEAP21—A Demand-, Priority-, and Preference-Driven Water Planning Model: Part 1: Model Characteristics journal December 2005
Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation journal February 2020
Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis journal June 1993

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