Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios

Journal Article · 31 December 2023 · Ecology and Society

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5751/es-14795-290119 · OSTI ID:2407323

Kuiper, Jan ^[1]; Carpenter-Urquhart, Liam R. ^[1]; Berbés-Blázquez, Marta ^[2]; Oteros-Rozas, Elisa ^[3]; Fredström, Linna ^[1]; Psiuk, Kinga ^[1]; Savu, Codruța ^[1]; Kautsky, Robert ^[4]; Guerry, Anne ^[5]; Carpenter, Stephen ^[6]; Green, Charlyn E. ^[7]; Meacham, Megan ^[1]; Remme, Roy P. ^[8]; Ravera, Federica ^[9]; Wankmüller, Franziska ^[10]; Arkema, Katie K. ^[11]; Pereira, Laura M. ^[12]; Peterson, Garry D. ^[1]

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1. Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)
2. Univ. of Waterloo, ON (Canada)
3. University of Córdoba (Spain); FRACTAL Collective, Madrid (Spain)
4. Azote Stockholm (Sweden)
5. Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
6. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
7. Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States)
8. Leiden Univ. (Netherlands); Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
9. Univ. of Girona (Spain); FRACTAL Collective, Madrid (Spain)
10. Heidelberg Univ. of Education (Germany)
11. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States)
12. Univ. of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg (South Africa); Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)

T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation (MMW); National Science Foundation (NSF); Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS); USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 2407323
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA--198339
• Journal Information: Ecology and Society, Journal Name: Ecology and Society Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 29; ISSN 1708-3087
• Publisher: Resilience AllianceCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English