Search Menu
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Search Scholarly Publications

Title: Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance From the Current State of ENSO

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5]
  1. University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); New York University (NYU), NY (United States)
  2. University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  3. Princeton University, NJ (United States)
  4. University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
  5. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Princeton University, NJ (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TWmax). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TWmax and significant regional TWmax variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ~2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TWmax of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TWmax in specific areas.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
2407292
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 51; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (19)

Role of El Niño/La Niña in temperature extremes over India journal January 2009
The ERA5 global reanalysis journal June 2020
Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation journal July 1980
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century journal January 2003
The impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on maximum temperature extremes journal October 2012
Observational Evidence for Two Modes of Coupling Between Sea Surface Temperatures, Tropospheric Temperature Profile, and Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect in the Tropics journal August 2019
How Tropical Convection Couples High Moist Static Energy Over Land and Ocean journal January 2020
Recent Increases in Exposure to Extreme Humid‐Heat Events Disproportionately Affect Populated Regions journal October 2021
On the Controlling Factors for Globally Extreme Humid Heat journal November 2021
Concentrated and Intensifying Humid Heat Extremes in the IPCC AR6 Regions journal March 2022
Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming journal June 2017
An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress journal May 2010
The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance journal May 2020
Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect on Indo–Western Pacific Climate during the Summer following El Niño journal February 2009
Mechanisms for Lagged Atmospheric Response to ENSO SST Forcing* journal October 2005
Mechanisms of Remote Tropical Surface Warming during El Niño journal October 2005
Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems journal July 1992
Humidity’s Role in Heat-Related Health Outcomes: A Heated Debate journal May 2023
Quasi-Geostrophic Motions in the Equatorial Area [赤道近くでの準地衡風的運動] journal January 1966

Similar Records

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ENSO
global warming
heat stress
tropical dynamics
wet-bulb temperature