Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Macmillan, Madeline; Zolan, Alexander; Bazilian, Morgan; Villa, Daniel L.

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123355

Title: Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Journal Article · 27 May 2024 · Applied Energy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123355 · OSTI ID:2405074

Macmillan, Madeline ^[1];

^[2]; Bazilian, Morgan ^[3];

^[4]

Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States); National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 2405074

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--5700-87314; MainId:88089; UUID:b103ad98-cead-4849-b639-9083c60ddd82; MainAdminId:73156

Journal Information:: Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Vol. 368; ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (58)

Scenarios and Policy Aggregation in Optimization Under Uncertainty Rockafellar, R. T.; Wets, Roger J. -B. Mathematics of Operations Research, Vol. 16, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.16.1.119	journal	February 1991
The National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) Sengupta, Manajit; Xie, Yu; Lopez, Anthony Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 89 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.003	journal	June 2018
Resilience analysis of renewable microgrids for commercial buildings with different usage patterns and weather conditions Sepúlveda-Mora, Sergio B.; Hegedus, Steven Renewable Energy, Vol. 192 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.04.090	journal	June 2022
Influence of ambient temperature on combined-cycle power-plant performance Arrieta, Felipe R. Ponce; Lora, Electo E. Silva Applied Energy, Vol. 80, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2004.04.007	journal	March 2005
Obtaining lower bounds from the progressive hedging algorithm for stochastic mixed-integer programs Gade, Dinakar; Hackebeil, Gabriel; Ryan, Sarah M. Mathematical Programming, Vol. 157, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-016-1000-z	journal	April 2016
Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator Application to Heat Waves Villa, Daniel; Carvallo, Juan; Bianchi, Carlo ASHRAE/IBPSA-USA Building Simulation Conference https://doi.org/10.26868/25746308.2022.C006	conference	September 2022
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016	journal	January 2016
The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes Dyreson, A.; Devineni, N.; Turner, S. W. D. Earth's Future, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002554	journal	June 2022
Distributed energy resources and benefits to the environment Akorede, Mudathir Funsho; Hizam, Hashim; Pouresmaeil, Edris Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2009.10.025	journal	February 2010
Risk-averse stochastic programming approach for microgrid planning under uncertainty Narayan, Apurva; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy Renewable Energy, Vol. 101 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.08.064	journal	February 2017
A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian; Haugan, Peter M.; Solbrekke, Ida Marie Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 96 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.08.002	journal	November 2018
A review on distributed energy resources and MicroGrid Jiayi, Huang; Chuanwen, Jiang; Rong, Xu Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 12, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2007.06.004	journal	December 2008
Change in the heatwave statistical characteristics over China during the climate warming slowdown Li, Xin; Ren, Guoyu; Wang, Suyan Atmospheric Research, Vol. 247 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105152	journal	January 2021
A mixed integer linear programming approach for optimal DER portfolio, sizing, and placement in multi-energy microgrids Mashayekh, Salman; Stadler, Michael; Cardoso, Gonçalo Applied Energy, Vol. 187 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.11.020	journal	February 2017
Application Strategies of Model Predictive Control for the Design and Operations of Renewable Energy-Based Microgrid: A Survey Konneh, Keifa Vamba; Adewuyi, Oludamilare Bode; Lotfy, Mohammed Elsayed Electronics, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics11040554	journal	February 2022
Optimal design and dispatch of a system of diesel generators, photovoltaics and batteries for remote locations Scioletti, Michael S.; Newman, Alexandra M.; Goodman, Johanna K. Optimization and Engineering, Vol. 18, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11081-017-9355-4	journal	May 2017
Integrated scheduling of energy supply and demand in microgrids under uncertainty: A robust multi-objective optimization approach Wang, Luhao; Li, Qiqiang; Ding, Ran Energy, Vol. 130 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.04.115	journal	July 2017
Climate change and infrastructure risk: Indoor heat exposure during a concurrent heat wave and blackout event in Phoenix, Arizona Stone, Brian; Mallen, Evan; Rajput, Mayuri Urban Climate, Vol. 36 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100787	journal	March 2021
Climate change: What do we know about the IPCC? Hulme, Mike; Mahony, Martin Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 34, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133310373719	journal	June 2010
A decision‐making experiment under wind power forecast uncertainty Möhrlen, Corinna; Bessa, Ricardo J.; Fleischhut, Nadine Meteorological Applications, Vol. 29, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2077	journal	May 2022
The bisection method in higher dimensions Wood, G. R. Mathematical Programming, Vol. 55, Issue 1-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581205	journal	April 1992
Monte Carlo bounding techniques for determining solution quality in stochastic programs Mak, Wai-Kei; Morton, David P.; Wood, R. Kevin Operations Research Letters, Vol. 24, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(98)00054-6	journal	February 1999
Optimizing design and dispatch of a renewable energy system Ogunmodede, Oluwaseun; Anderson, Kate; Cutler, Dylan Applied Energy, Vol. 287 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116527	journal	April 2021
Assessing the resilience of multi microgrid based widespread power systems against natural disasters using Monte Carlo Simulation Younesi, Abdollah; Shayeghi, Hossein; Safari, Amin Energy, Vol. 207 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118220	journal	September 2020
Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth Callahan, Christopher W.; Mankin, Justin S. Science Advances, Vol. 8, Issue 43 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add3726	journal	October 2022
Computational framework for behind-the-meter DER techno-economic modeling and optimization: REopt Lite Mishra, Sakshi; Pohl, Josiah; Laws, Nick Energy Systems https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-021-00446-8	journal	May 2021
Climate change impact and resilience in the electricity sector: The example of Austria and Germany Totschnig, G.; Hirner, R.; Müller, A. Energy Policy, Vol. 103 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.019	journal	April 2017
A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States Craig, Michael T.; Cohen, Stuart; Macknick, Jordan Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 98 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022	journal	December 2018
Long-Term Wind Speed Forecasting and General Pattern Recognition Using Neural Networks Azad, Hanieh Borhan; Mekhilef, Saad; Ganapathy, Vellapa Gounder IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2014.2300150	journal	April 2014
Exploring acute weather resilience: Meeting resilience and renewable goals Macmillan, Madeline; Murphy, Caitlin A.; Bazilian, Morgan D. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 168 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112841	journal	October 2022
Risk-Averse Model Predictive Operation Control of Islanded Microgrids Hans, Christian A.; Sopasakis, Pantelis; Raisch, Jorg IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1109/TCST.2019.2929492	journal	November 2020
A Novel Methodological Framework for the Design of Sustainable Rural Microgrid for Developing Nations Kumar, Abhishek; Singh, Arvind R.; Deng, Yan IEEE Access, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2832460	journal	January 2018
Statistical climate model downscaling for impact projections in the Midwest United States Polasky, Andrew D.; Evans, Jenni L.; Fuentes, Jose D. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 42, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7406	journal	November 2021
Resilience of robust cost-optimal energy retrofit of buildings to global warming: A multi-stage, multi-objective approach Ascione, Fabrizio; Bianco, Nicola; De Masi, Rosa Francesca Energy and Buildings, Vol. 153 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.08.004	journal	October 2017
Coordinating microgrid procurement decisions with a dispatch strategy featuring a concentration gradient Husted, Mark A.; Suthar, Bharatkumar; Goodall, Gavin H. Applied Energy, Vol. 219 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.139	journal	June 2018
Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts Nowotarski, Jakub; Liu, Bidong; Weron, Rafał Energy, Vol. 98 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.142	journal	March 2016
Spatiotemporal distribution of power outages with climate events and social vulnerability in the USA Do, Vivian; McBrien, Heather; Flores, Nina M. Nature Communications, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38084-6	journal	April 2023
Optimizing design and dispatch of a resilient renewable energy microgrid for a South African hospital Hirwa, Jusse; Zolan, Alexander; Becker, William Applied Energy, Vol. 348 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121438	journal	October 2023
NOAA's 1981–2010 U.S. Climate Normals: An Overview Arguez, Anthony; Durre, Imke; Applequist, Scott Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00197.1	journal	November 2012
A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis Villa, Daniel L.; Schostek, Tyler; Govertsen, Krissy Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 163 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105663	journal	May 2023
Heat wave tracker: A multi-method, multi-source heat wave measurement toolkit based on Google Earth Engine Zhang, Mingxi; Yang, Xihua; Cleverly, Jamie Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 147 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105255	journal	January 2022
On microgrids and resilience: A comprehensive review on modeling and operational strategies Wang, Yi; Rousis, Anastasios Oulis; Strbac, Goran Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 134 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110313	journal	December 2020
From Solar Microgrid Simulation to Field Deployment: Accuracy and Uncertainties Robert, Fabien Chidanand; Gopalan, Sundararaman 2018 7th International Conference on Renewable Energy Research and Applications (ICRERA) https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRERA.2018.8566777	conference	October 2018
Optimal design of microgrids to improve wildfire resilience for vulnerable communities at the wildland-urban interface Perera, A. T. D.; Zhao, Bingyu; Wang, Zhe Applied Energy, Vol. 335 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120744	journal	April 2023
Optimal design and dispatch of a hybrid microgrid system capturing battery fade Goodall, Gavin; Scioletti, Michael; Zolan, Alex Optimization and Engineering, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11081-018-9404-7	journal	November 2018
Mini-grid based off-grid electrification to enhance electricity access in developing countries: What policies may be required? Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Palit, Debajit Energy Policy, Vol. 94 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.04.010	journal	July 2016
Institutional heat wave analysis by building energy modeling fleet and meter data Villa, Daniel L. Energy and Buildings, Vol. 237 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.110774	journal	April 2021
Modeling and Evaluating the Resilience of Critical Electrical Power Infrastructure to Extreme Weather Events Panteli, Mathaios; Mancarella, Pierluigi IEEE Systems Journal, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1109/JSYST.2015.2389272	journal	September 2017
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009	journal	January 2017
Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series Hyndman, Rob J.; Ahmed, Roman A.; Athanasopoulos, George Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol. 55, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2011.03.006	journal	September 2011
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006	journal	January 2017
Energy Storage Systems Architecture Optimization for Grid Resilience With High Penetration of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation Confrey, John; Etemadi, Amir H.; Stuban, Steven M. F. IEEE Systems Journal, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1109/JSYST.2019.2918273	journal	March 2020
Two-stage stochastic programming formulation for optimal design and operation of multi-microgrid system using data-based modeling of renewable energy sources Han, Dongho; Lee, Jay H. Applied Energy, Vol. 291 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116830	journal	June 2021
Comparison of five stochastic weather generators in simulating daily precipitation and temperature for the Loess Plateau of China Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3896	journal	January 2014
Stochastic Optimization for Energy Management in Power Systems With Multiple Microgrids Wang, Shasha; Gangammanavar, Harsha; Eksioglu, Sandra D. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2017.2759159	journal	January 2019
Optimizing design and dispatch of a renewable energy system with combined heat and power Hirwa, Jusse; Ogunmodede, Oluwaseun; Zolan, Alexander Optimization and Engineering, Vol. 23, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11081-021-09674-4	journal	January 2022
Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling Craig, Michael T.; Wohland, Jan; Stoop, Laurens P. Joule, Vol. 6, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.05.010	journal	July 2022
Quantifying and Monetizing Renewable Energy Resiliency Anderson, Kate; Laws, Nicholas; Marr, Spencer Sustainability, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/su10040933	journal	March 2018

Similar Records

Looking Beyond Bill Savings to Equity in Renewable Energy Microgrid Deployment

Journal Article · 2022 · Renewable Energy Focus · OSTI ID:1845087

Anderson, Kate; Farthing, Amanda; Elgqvist, Emma; +1 more

Financing Microgrids in the Federal Sector

Technical Report · 2020 · OSTI ID:1646983

Kurnik, Chuck; Voss, Phil

Dispatch Control with PEV Charging and Renewables for Multiplayer Game Application

Conference · 2017 · OSTI ID:1367847

Davis, Nathan; Johnson, Brian; McJunkin, Timothy; +2 more

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
climate change
energy systems
microgrids
resilience
stochastic programming

Title: Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Citation Formats

References (58)

Similar Records

Related Subjects