DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Journal Article · · Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Water Power Technologies Office; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; NA0003525
OSTI ID:
2377870
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1638491
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-152704
Journal Information:
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol. 8, Issue 4; ISSN 2077-1312
Publisher:
MDPICopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 26 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (28)

Investigation of trends in extreme value wave height and wind speed: EXTREME VALUE TRENDS journal March 2012
Extreme wave statistical methods and implications for coastal analyses journal July 2019
Uncertainties in extreme value modelling of wave data in a climate change perspective journal May 2015
A global wave power resource and its seasonal, interannual and long-term variability journal June 2015
On the calculation of extreme wave heights: A review journal January 1986
100-Year Return Value Estimates for Ocean Wind Speed and Significant Wave Height from the ERA-40 Data journal April 2005
A wave model test bed study for wave energy resource characterization journal December 2017
Extreme wave predictions around New Zealand from hindcast data journal September 2006
On estimating extreme wave heights using combined Geosat, Topex/Poseidon and ERS-1 altimeter data journal August 2003
Development and validation of a high-resolution regional wave hindcast model for U.S. West Coast wave resource characterization journal June 2020
An Application of the Peaks Over Threshold Method to Predict Extremes of Significant Wave Height journal August 1998
Changes of Extreme Wave Heights in Northern Hemisphere Oceans and Related Atmospheric Circulation Regimes journal May 2001
Classification systems for wave energy resources and WEC technologies journal November 2018
Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society journal September 2016
A recent increase in global wave power as a consequence of oceanic warming journal January 2019
Validation of a thirty year wave hindcast using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds journal October 2013
Global Trends in Wind Speed and Wave Height journal March 2011
Predicting ocean waves along the US east coast during energetic winter storms: sensitivity to whitecapping parameterizations journal January 2019
Spatial variability of extreme wave height along the Atlantic and channel French coast journal March 2015
Development and validation of a regional-scale high-resolution unstructured model for wave energy resource characterization along the US East Coast journal June 2019
Pacific Hindcast Performance of Three Numerical Wave Models journal August 2009
On a Test Whether Two Samples are from the Same Population journal June 1940
Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states journal January 2016
A Sensitivity Analysis of the Wind Forcing Effect on the Accuracy of Large-Wave Hindcasting journal November 2018
Uncertainties in extreme value modelling of wave data in a climate change perspective journal May 2015
On the calculation of extreme wave heights: A review journal January 1986
Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states journal January 2016
On a Test Whether Two Samples are from the Same Population journal June 1940

Figures / Tables (9)