Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate

Journal Article · 06 June 2024 · Earth's Future

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004297 · OSTI ID:2371594

Sherwood, S. C.  ^[1]; Hegerl, G.  ^[2]; Braconnot, P. ^[3]; Friedlingstein, P. ^[4]; Goelzer, H.  ^[5]; Harris, N. R. P.  ^[6]; Holland, E. ^[7]; Kim, H.  ^[8]; Mitchell, M.  ^[9]; Naish, T.  ^[10]; Nobre, P. ^[11]; Otto‐Bliesner, B. L.  ^[12]; Reed, K. A.  ^[13]; Renwick, J.  ^[14]; van der Wel, N. P. M. ^[15]

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1. Climate Change Research Centre UNSW Sydney Sydney NSW Australia
2. School of Geosciences the University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK
3. Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE‐IPSL) Gif‐sur‐Yvette cedex France
4. Faculty of Environment Science and Economy University of Exeter Exeter UK, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace CNRS École Normale Supérieure Université PSL Paris France
5. NORCE Norwegian Research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen Norway
6. Cranfield Environment Centre Cranfield University Cranfield UK
7. Institute for Strategy, Resilience and Security University College London London UK
8. Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology Deajeon Korea, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology Deajeon Korea, Institute of Industrial Science The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
9. Virginia Institute of Marine Science William &, Mary Gloucester Point VA USA
10. Antarctic Research Centre Victoria University of Wellington | Te Herenga Waka PO Box 600 Wellington New Zealand
11. National Institute for Space Research ‐ INPE São José dos Campos Brazil
12. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
13. School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University Stony Brook NY USA
14. School of Geography Environment and Earth Sciences Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand
15. World Climate Research Programme Secretariat and WMO Geneva Switzerland

Abstract Global climate change is often thought of as a steady and approximately predictable physical response to increasing forcings, which then requires commensurate adaptation. But adaptation has practical, cultural and biological limits, and climate change may pose unanticipated global hazards, sudden changes or other surprises–as may societal adaptation and mitigation responses. These poorly known factors could substantially affect the urgency of mitigation as well as adaptation decisions. We outline a strategy for better accommodating these challenges by making climate science more integrative, in order to identify and quantify known and novel physical risks including those arising from interactions with ecosystems and society. We need to do this even–or especially–when they are highly uncertain, and to explore risks and opportunities associated with mitigation and adaptation responses by engaging across disciplines. We argue that upcoming climate assessments need to be more risk‐aware, and suggest ways of achieving this. These strategies improve the chances of anticipating potential surprises and identifying and communicating “safe landing” pathways that meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and guide humanity toward a better future.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 2371594
• Journal Information: Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 12; ISSN 2328-4277
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English