Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Sweeney, Aodhan J.; Fu, Qiang; Po‐Chedley, Stephen; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Muyin

doi:10.1029/2024GL108798

Title: Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Journal Article · 05 June 2024 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108798 · OSTI ID:2371051

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Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Livermore CA USA
Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division PNNL Richland WA USA
Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies University of Washington Seattle WA USA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research NOAA Seattle WA USA

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: NONE; AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 2371051

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2377916; OSTI ID: 2396982; OSTI ID: 2475165

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 51; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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