Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Shaw, Tiffany A.; Arias, Paola A.; Collins, Mat; Coumou, Dim; Diedhiou, Arona; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Jain, Shipra; Roxy, Mathew Koll; Kretschmer, Marlene; Leung, L. Ruby; Narsey, Sugata; Martius, Olivia; Seager, Richard; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Sörensson, Anna A.; Stephenson, Tannecia; Taylor, Michael; Wang, Lin

doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634

Title: Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Journal Article · 02 May 2024 · Frontiers in Climate

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634 · OSTI ID:2352406

Shaw, Tiffany A. ^[1]; Arias, Paola A. ^[2]; Collins, Mat ^[3]; Coumou, Dim ^[4]; Diedhiou, Arona ^[5]; Garfinkel, Chaim I. ^[6]; Jain, Shipra ^[7]; Roxy, Mathew Koll ^[8]; Kretschmer, Marlene ^[9]; Leung, L. Ruby ^[10]; Narsey, Sugata ^[11]; Martius, Olivia ^[12]; Seager, Richard ^[13]; Shepherd, Theodore G. ^[14]; Sörensson, Anna A. ^[15]; Stephenson, Tannecia ^[16]; Taylor, Michael ^[16]; Wang, Lin ^[17]

Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)
Univ. de Antioquia, Medellín (Colombia)
Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)
Vrije Univ., Amsterdam (Netherlands)
Univ. of Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France)
Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem (Israel)
Univ. College London (United Kingdom); Centre for Climate Research Singapore (Singapore)
Indian Inst. of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India)
Univ. of Leipzig (Germany); Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)
Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom); Forschungszentrum Jülich (Germany). Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC)
Univ. of Buenos Aires (Argentina); CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina)
Univ. of the West Indies, Kingston (Jamaica)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); Israel Science Foundation (ISF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2352406

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--198550; {"","Journal ID: ISSN 2624-9553"}

Journal Information:: Frontiers in Climate, Journal Name: Frontiers in Climate Vol. 6; ISSN 2624-9553

Publisher:: Frontiers Media S.A.Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Stop explaining black box machine learning models for high stakes decisions and use interpretable models instead Rudin, Cynthia Nature Machine Intelligence, Vol. 1, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s42256-019-0048-x	journal	May 2019
Surrogate Downscaling of Mesoscale Wind Fields Using Ensemble Superresolution Convolutional Neural Networks Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi Thomas; Hayashi, Syugo; Kaneko, Ryo Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Vol. 2, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-23-0007.1	journal	July 2023
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Climate models fail to capture strengthening wintertime North Atlantic jet and impacts on Europe Blackport, Russell; Fyfe, John C. Science Advances, Vol. 8, Issue 45 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn3112	journal	November 2022
A drier than expected future, supported by near-surface relative humidity observations Douville, Hervé; Willett, Katharine M. Science Advances, Vol. 9, Issue 30 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ade6253	journal	July 2023
Larger Sensitivity of Precipitation Extremes to Aerosol Than Greenhouse Gas Forcing in CMIP5 Models Lin, Lei; Wang, Zhili; Xu, Yangyang Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028821	journal	August 2018
Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models Sanjay, Jayanarayanan; Krishnan, Raghavan; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.08.003	journal	September 2017
The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes Wehrli, Kathrin; Luo, Fei; Hauser, Mathias Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022	journal	August 2022
The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events Bettolli, M. L.; Solman, S. A.; da Rocha, R. P. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 56, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05549-z	journal	January 2021
Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Oglesby, Robert Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep32177	journal	August 2016
Stormier Southern Hemisphere induced by topography and ocean circulation Shaw, Tiffany A.; Miyawaki, Osamu; Donohoe, Aaron Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2123512119	journal	December 2022
Detectable Impact of Local and Remote Anthropogenic Aerosols on the 20th Century Changes of West African and South Asian Monsoon Precipitation: D&A AEROSOLS AND MONSOON PRECIPITATION Undorf, S.; Polson, D.; Bollasina, M. A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027711	journal	May 2018
On the future zonal contrasts of equatorial Pacific climate: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories Lee, Sukyoung; L’Heureux, Michelle; Wittenberg, Andrew T. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00301-2	journal	October 2022
Regulating Fine‐Scale Resolved Convection in High‐Resolution Models for Better Hurricane Track Prediction Gao, Kun; Harris, Lucas; Bender, Morris Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 50, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103329	journal	July 2023
A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India Roxy, M. K.; Ghosh, Subimal; Pathak, Amey Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9	journal	October 2017
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Non‐Local Parameterization of Atmospheric Subgrid Processes With Neural Networks Wang, Peidong; Yuval, Janni; O’Gorman, Paul A. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 14, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS002984	journal	October 2022
Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2664	journal	June 2015
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty Marchau, Vincent A. W. J.; Walker, Warren E.; Bloemen, Pieter J. T. M. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2	book	January 2019
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Tropical Australian climate and the Australian monsoon as simulated by 23 CMIP3 models Colman, R. A.; Moise, A. F.; Hanson, L. I. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015149	journal	January 2011
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Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying Hoell, Andrew; Hoerling, Martin; Eischeid, Jon Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0558.1	journal	February 2017
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Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends Vautard, Robert; Cattiaux, Julien; Happé, Tamara Nature Communications, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3	journal	October 2023
The Local Aerosol Emission Effect on Surface Shortwave Radiation and Temperatures Freychet, N.; Tett, S. F. B.; Bollasina, M. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001530	journal	March 2019

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