Ambitious efforts on residual emissions can reduce CO2 removal and lower peak temperatures in a net-zero future
[1];
[1];
[1];
[3];
[4];
- University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo (Norway)
- University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute; Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
- Climate Works Foundation, San Francisco, CA (United States)
- Quadrature Climate Foundation, London (United Kingdom)
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is expected to play a critical role in reaching net zero CO2 and especially net zero greenhouse gase (GHG) emissions. However, the extent to which the role of CDR in counterbalancing residual emissions can be reduced has not yet been fully quantified. Here, we use a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model to develop a 'Maximum Sectoral Effort' scenario which features global emissions policies alongside ambitious effort across sectors to reduce their gross GHG emissions and thereby the CDR required for offsets. We find that these efforts can reduce CDR by over 50% globally, increase both the relative and absolute role of the land sink in storing carbon, and more evenly distribute CDR contributions and associated side-effects across regions compared to CO2 pricing alone. Furthermore, the lower cumulative CO2 and nonCO2 emissions leads to earlier and lower peak temperatures. Emphasizing reductions in gross, in addition to net emissions while disallowing the substitution of less durable CDR for offsets can therefore reduce both physical and transition risks associated with high CDR deployment and temperature overshoot.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Research Foundation of Korea
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 2352405
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-ACT-SA--10841
- Journal Information:
- Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 19; ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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