Enhancing Probabilistic Solar PV Forecasting: Integrating the NB-DST Method with Deterministic Models

Ahmad, Tawsif; Zhou, Ning; Zhang, Ziang; Tang, Wenyuan

doi:10.3390/en17102392

Title: Enhancing Probabilistic Solar PV Forecasting: Integrating the NB-DST Method with Deterministic Models

Journal Article · 16 May 2024 · Energies

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en17102392 · OSTI ID:2350983

^[1];

^[1]; Tang, Wenyuan ^[2]

State University of New York at Binghamton, NY (United States)
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in solar photovoltaic (PV) generation forecasts is imperative for the efficient and reliable operation of the power grid. In this paper, a data-driven non-parametric probabilistic method based on the Naïve Bayes (NB) classification algorithm and Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) of evidence is proposed for day-ahead probabilistic PV power forecasting. This NB-DST method extends traditional deterministic solar PV forecasting methods by quantifying the uncertainty of their forecasts by estimating the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of their forecast errors and forecast variables. The statistical performance of this method is compared with the analog ensemble method and the persistence ensemble method under three different weather conditions using real-world data. The study results reveal that the proposed NB-DST method coupled with an artificial neural network model outperforms the other methods in that its estimated CDFs have lower spread, higher reliability, and sharper probabilistic forecasts with better accuracy.

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Research Organization:: Binghamton Univ., NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: EE0009341; #1845523

OSTI ID:: 2350983

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2369570

Journal Information:: Energies, Vol. 17, Issue 10; ISSN 1996-1073

Publisher:: MDPICopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Enhancing Probabilistic Solar PV Forecasting: Integrating the NB-DST Method with Deterministic Models

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