African Easterly Wave Strength and Observed Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Characteristics

Journal Article · 15 May 2024 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD040858 · OSTI ID:2350979

Bercos‐Hickey, Emily  ^[1]; Patricola, Christina M.  ^[2]

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1. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
2. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University Ames IA USA

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) are known precursors to Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), and are therefore often directly connected to extreme weather events that can be both deadly and destructive. It is well established that not all AEWs develop into TCs, and there has been substantial research that has addressed the different characteristics and environments of developing and non‐developing waves. In this study, however, we specifically examine 41‐years of developing AEWs to provide a better understanding of the relationship between the developing wave and the environment, and the resulting TC. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2020. We then used an objective tracking algorithm to identify the developing AEWs in reanalysis data. We found a statistically significant relationship between the strength of the developing AEWs, TC genesis location and landfall, and sea surface temperature (SST) during TC genesis. Weaker AEWs tend to develop into TCs closer to the Americas in a region with warmer SSTs than those of the stronger AEWs, which tend to develop into TCs closer to Africa. Consequently, the TCs that develop from weaker AEWs are more likely to make landfall due to the close proximity of their genesis locations to the Americas.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231
• OSTI ID: 2350979
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 2356844; OSTI ID: 2404339
• Journal Information: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 129; ISSN 2169-897X
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English