Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems

Mignone, Bryan K.; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James A.; Gurgel, Angelo; Herzog, Howard J.; Johnson, Jeremiah X.; Mallapragada, Dharik S.; McJeon, Haewon; Morris, Jennifer; O’Rourke, Patrick R.; Paltsev, Sergey; Rose, Steven K.; Steinberg, Daniel C.; Venkatesh, Aranya

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-47059-0

Title: Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems

Journal Article · 10 May 2024 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47059-0 · OSTI ID:2349419

^[1]; Clarke, Leon ^[2];

^[3];

^[4];

^[5];

^[4]; McJeon, Haewon ^[3];

^[4];

^[6];

^[4]; Rose, Steven K. ^[7];

^[8]; Venkatesh, Aranya ^[9]

ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States)
Bezos Earth Fund, Washington, DC (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 2349419

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2367310

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT-SA-10768; NREL/JA-6A20-89982

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Vol. 15, Issue 1; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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