Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0

Zhang, Jishi; Bogenschutz, Peter; Tang, Qi; Cameron-smith, Philip; Zhang, Chengzhu

doi:10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024

Title: Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0

Journal Article · 07 May 2024 · Geoscientific Model Development (Online)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024 · OSTI ID:2348979

; Bogenschutz, Peter;

;

; Zhang, Chengzhu

Abstract. The spatial heterogeneity related to complex topography in California demands high-resolution (< 5 km) modeling, but global convection-permitting climate models are computationally too expensive to run multi-decadal simulations. We developed a 3.25 km California climate modeling framework by leveraging regional mesh refinement (CARRM) using the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s global Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) version 0. Four 5-year time periods (2015–2020, 2029–2034, 2044–2049, and 2094–2099) were simulated by nudging CARRM outside California to 1° coupled simulation of E3SMv1 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)5-8.5 future scenario. The 3.25 km grid spacing adds considerable value to the prediction of the California climate changes, including more realistic high temperatures in the Central Valley and much improved spatial distributions of precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and coastal stratocumulus. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CARRM simulation predicts widespread warming of 6–10 °C over most of California, a 38 % increase in statewide average 30 d winter–spring precipitation, a near-complete loss of the alpine snowpack, and a sharp reduction in shortwave cloud radiative forcing associated with marine stratocumulus by the end of the 21st century. We note a climatological wet precipitation bias for the CARRM and discuss possible reasons. We conclude that SCREAM RRM is a technically feasible and scientifically valid tool for climate simulations in regions of interest, providing an excellent bridge to global convection-permitting simulations.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 2348979

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2367388

Journal Information:: Geoscientific Model Development (Online), Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online) Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 17; ISSN 1991-9603

Publisher:: Copernicus GmbHCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

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