How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

Jonko, Alexandra; Oliveto, Julia Andre; Beaty, Teresa Marie; Atchley, Adam Lee; Battaglia, Mike A.; Dickinson, Matthew B.; Gallagher, Michael R.; Gilbert, Ash; Godwin, Daniel; Kupfer, John A.; Hiers, J. Kevin; Hoffman, Chad; North, Malcolm; Restaino, Joseph; Sieg, Carolyn; Skowronski, Nicholas

doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00649-7

Title: How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

Journal Article · 25 April 2024 · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00649-7 · OSTI ID:2346084

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^[2];

^[1];

^[3]; Dickinson, Matthew B. ^[4]; Gallagher, Michael R. ^[5];

^[6];

^[7]; Kupfer, John A. ^[8]; Hiers, J. Kevin ^[9]; Hoffman, Chad ^[10];

^[11]; Restaino, Joseph ^[12]; Sieg, Carolyn ^[13]; Skowronski, Nicholas ^[14]

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Northern New Mexico College, Espanola, NM (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO (United States). Rocky Mountain Research Station
USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH (United States). Northern Research Station
USDA Forest Service, New Lisbon, NJ (United States). Northern Research Station
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO (United States)
Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States)
National Resources Institute, Washington, DC (United States)
Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Davis, CA (United States). Pacific Southwest Research Station
California Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection, South Lake Tahoe, CA (United States)
US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Rocky Mountain Research Station
USDA Forest Service, Morgantown, WV (United States). Northern Research Station

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 2346084

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--22-30261

Journal Information:: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Name: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 7; ISSN 2397-3722

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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