A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification
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- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA
- NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Miami FL USA
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
- First Street Foundation Brooklyn NY USA, Space Science and Engineering Center University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison WI USA
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA
Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 2345272
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 2345273; OSTI ID: 2446698; OSTI ID: 2447943; OSTI ID: 2453888
- Journal Information:
- Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 12; ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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