Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

Gautam, Sagar; Mishra, Umakant; Scown, Corinne D.; Ghimire, Rajan

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-48650-z

Title: Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

Journal Article · 05 December 2023 · Scientific Reports

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-48650-z · OSTI ID:2345180

Gautam, Sagar ^[1]; Mishra, Umakant ^[1]; Scown, Corinne D. ^[2]; Ghimire, Rajan ^[3]

Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI), Emeryville, CA (United States)
Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI), Emeryville, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
New Mexico State Univ., Las Cruces, NM (United States)

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 2345180

Journal Information:: Scientific Reports, Journal Name: Scientific Reports Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 13; ISSN 2045-2322

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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