Observational constraint on a feedback from supercooled clouds reduces projected warming uncertainty

Cesana, Grégory V.; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Silber, Israel; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Chepfer, Hélène; Khadir, Théodore; Roehrig, Romain

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01339-1

Title: Observational constraint on a feedback from supercooled clouds reduces projected warming uncertainty

Journal Article · 05 April 2024 · Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01339-1 · OSTI ID:2336697

^[1]; Ackerman, Andrew S. ^[2];

^[2]; Silber, Israel ^[3]; Del Genio, Anthony D. ^[1];

^[4]; Chepfer, Hélène ^[5];

^[6];

^[7]

Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)
Univ. of Toulouse (France); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Toulouse (France). Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Météo-France

The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 °C and reduces inter-model spread.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Contributing Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL); Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0021004; SC0018046; AC52-07NA27344; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2336697

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2339784

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--197479; {"","Journal ID: ISSN 2662-4435"}

Journal Information:: Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Communications Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 5; ISSN 2662-4435

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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