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Title: Future of hydrogen in the U.S. energy sector: MARKAL modeling results

Journal Article · · Applications in Energy and Combustion Science
 [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
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Hydrogen is an attractive energy carrier which could play a role in decarbonizing process heat, power or transport applications. Though the U.S. already produces about 10 million metric tons of H2 (over 1 quadrillion BTUs or 1 % of the U.S. primary energy consumption), production technologies primarily use fossil fuels that release CO2, and the deployment of other, cleaner H2 production technologies is still in the very early stages in the U.S. This study explores (1) the level of current U.S. hydrogen production and demand, (2) the importance of hydrogen to accelerate a net-zero CO2 future, and (3) the challenges that must be overcome to make hydrogen an important part of the U.S. energy system. The study discusses four scenarios and hydrogen production has been shown to increase in the future, but this growth is not enough to establish a hydrogen economy. In this study, the characteristics of hydrogen technologies and their deployments in the long-term future are investigated using energy system model MARKAL. The effects of strong carbon constraints do not cause higher hydrogen demand but show a decrease in comparison to the business-as-usual scenario. Further, according to our modeling results, hydrogen grows only as a fuel for hard-to-decarbonize heavy-duty vehicles and is less competitive than other decarbonization solutions in the U.S. Without improvements in reducing the cost of electrolysis and increasing the performance of near-zero carbon technologies for hydrogen production, hydrogen will remain a niche player in the U.S. energy system in the long-term future. This article provides the reader with a comprehensive understanding of the role of hydrogen in the U.S. energy system, thereby explaining the long-term future projections.

Research Organization:
National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, Morgantown, WV, and Albany, OR (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE); USDOE
OSTI ID:
2327046
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 2328117
Report Number(s):
DOE/NETL-2023/3923
Journal Information:
Applications in Energy and Combustion Science, Vol. 18; ISSN 2666-352X
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (4)

ESP v1.0: methodology for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States journal January 2011
Sustainable Ammonia Production Processes journal March 2021
Technical-economic analysis for a green ammonia production plant in Chile and its subsequent transport to Japan journal September 2020
A review of electrochemical desulfurization technologies for fossil fuels journal June 2012

Figures / Tables (14)

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Appendix A(p. 9)figure Appendix A
Appendix B(p. 9)figure Appendix B

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