Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

Treat, Claire C.; Virkkala, Anna‐Maria; Burke, Eleanor; Bruhwiler, Lori; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Fisher, Joshua B.; Hashemi, Josh; Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W.; Rogers, Brendan M.; Westermann, Sebastian; Watts, Jennifer D.; Blanc‐Betes, Elena; Fuchs, Matthias; Kruse, Stefan; Malhotra, Avni; Miner, Kimberley; Strauss, Jens; Armstrong, Amanda; Epstein, Howard E.; Gay, Bradley; Goeckede, Mathias; Kalhori, Aram; Kou, Dan; Miller, Charles E.; Natali, Susan M.; Oh, Youmi; Shakil, Sarah; Sonnentag, Oliver; Varner, Ruth K.; Zolkos, Scott; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Hugelius, Gustaf

doi:10.1029/2023jg007638

Title: Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

Journal Article · 25 February 2024 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jg007638 · OSTI ID:2322510

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^[8]; Blanc‐Betes, Elena ^[9]; Fuchs, Matthias ^[10];

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Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany). Alfred Wegener Institute
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Stockholm University (Sweden)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab. (JPL)
Chapman University, Orange, CA (United States)
University of Oslo (Norway)
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), Baltimore, MD (United States)
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam (Germany)
University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio (Finland)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States); University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Uppsala University (Sweden)
University of Montreal, QC (Canada)
University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
Stockholm University (Sweden)

Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO₂ and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO₂ sink with lower net CO₂ uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: -52 g C m^-2 y^-1) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: -5 to -9 g C m^-2 y^-1). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m^-2 y^-1). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO₂ and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); Swiss National Science Foundation; Minderoo Foundation; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; EU Horizon 2020; Research Council of Norway; Swedish Research Council

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2322510

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--195592

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 129; ISSN 2169-8953

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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BAWLD-CH4: Methane Fluxes from Boreal and Arctic Ecosystems Kuhn, McKenzie; Varner, Ruth; Bastviken, David NSF Arctic Data Center https://doi.org/10.18739/A2DN3ZX1R	dataset	January 2021
Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps Hugelius, G.; Strauss, J.; Zubrzycki, S. Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg‐11‐6573‐2014	journal	January 2014
Nongrowing season methane emissions-a significant component of annual emissions across northern ecosystems Treat, Claire C.; Bloom, A. Anthony; Marushchak, Maija E. Global Change Biology, Vol. 24, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14137	journal	April 2018
Modelling past and future peatland carbon dynamics across the pan‐Arctic Chaudhary, Nitin; Westermann, Sebastian; Lamba, Shubhangi Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15099	journal	May 2020
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw Turetsky, Merritt R.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Jones, Miriam C. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561‐019‐0526‐0	journal	February 2020
Mapping the Vulnerability of Arctic Wetlands to Global Warming Kåresdotter, Elisie; Destouni, Georgia; Ghajarnia, Navid Earth's Future, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001858	journal	May 2021
Tundra is a consistent source of CO ₂ at a site with progressive permafrost thaw during 6 years of chamber and eddy covariance measurements : Tundra CO Celis, Gerardo; Mauritz, Marguerite; Bracho, Rosvel Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003671	journal	June 2017
The zero-curtain effect: Heat and mass transfer across an isothermal region in freezing soil Outcalt, Samuel I.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M. Water Resources Research, Vol. 26, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/WR026i007p01509	journal	July 1990
Satellite detection of increasing Northern Hemisphere non-frozen seasons from 1979 to 2008: Implications for regional vegetation growth Kim, Youngwook; Kimball, J. S.; Zhang, K. Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 121 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.014	journal	June 2012
Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska Jorgenson, M. Torre; Shur, Yuri L.; Pullman, Erik R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024960	journal	January 2006
Arctic browning: Impacts of extreme climatic events on heathland ecosystem CO 2 fluxes Treharne, Rachael; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Tømmervik, Hans Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14500	journal	November 2018
Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415123112	journal	March 2015
The importance of plants for methane emission at the ecosystem scale Bastviken, David; Treat, Claire C.; Pangala, Sunitha Rao Aquatic Botany, Vol. 184 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquabot.2022.103596	journal	January 2023
Effects of permafrost aggradation on peat properties as determined from a pan-Arctic synthesis of plant macrofossils: Permafrost Effects on Peat Properties Treat, C. C.; Jones, M. C.; Camill, P. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 121, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003061	journal	January 2016
Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing: C AND N VULERABLITIES OF THAWING Harden, Jennifer W.; Koven, Charles D.; Ping, Chien-Lu Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051958	journal	August 2012
Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle Schuur, Edward A. G.; Bockheim, James; Canadell, Josep G. BioScience, Vol. 58, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1641/b580807	journal	September 2008
Net carbon accumulation of a high-latitude permafrost palsa mire similar to permafrost-free peatlands: CARBON BALANCE OF A SUBARCTIC PEATLAND Olefeldt, David; Roulet, Nigel T.; Bergeron, Onil Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl050355	journal	February 2012
Deep Yedoma permafrost: A synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon vulnerability Strauss, Jens; Schirrmeister, Lutz; Grosse, Guido Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 172 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.007	journal	September 2017
Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change Jones, Matthew W.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Veraverbeke, Sander Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 60, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726	journal	June 2022
Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness Aalto, J.; Karjalainen, O.; Hjort, J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078007	journal	May 2018
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO ₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties Virkkala, Anna‐Maria; Aalto, Juha; Rogers, Brendan M. Global Change Biology, Vol. 27, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659	journal	June 2021
Hot trends and impact in permafrost science Sjöberg, Ylva; Siewert, Matthias B.; Rudy, Ashley C. A. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 31, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2047	journal	April 2020
Landscape matters: Predicting the biogeochemical effects of permafrost thaw on aquatic networks with a state factor approach Tank, Suzanne E.; Vonk, Jorien E.; Walvoord, Michelle A. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 31, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2057	journal	May 2020
Characterizing Methane Emission Hotspots From Thawing Permafrost Elder, C. D.; Thompson, D. R.; Thorpe, A. K. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 35, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006922	journal	December 2021
Methane production and methane consumption: a review of processes underlying wetland methane fluxes Segers, Reinoud Biogeochemistry, Vol. 41, Issue 1, p. 23-51 https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1005929032764	journal	April 1998
The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska Lyu, Zhou; Genet, Hélène; He, Yujie Ecological Applications, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1755	journal	December 2016
Dataset for "Monthly Gridded Data Product of Northern Wetland Methane Emissions Based on Upscaling Eddy Covariance Observations" Peltola, Olli; Vesala, Timo; Gao, Yao Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3247295	dataset	January 2019
Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications McGuire, A. David; Genet, Hélène; Lyu, Zhou Ecological Applications, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1768	journal	July 2018
Net ecosystem CO₂exchange in a boreal peatland, northern Manitoba Bellisario, Lianne M.; Moore, Tim R.; Bubier, Jill L. Écoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.1998.11682491	journal	January 1998
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C. Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338	journal	April 2015
A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH ₄ and CO ₂ production from anoxic soil incubations Treat, Claire C.; Natali, Susan M.; Ernakovich, Jessica Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12875	journal	March 2015
Tundra ecosystems observed to be CO ₂ sources due to differential amplification of the carbon cycle Belshe, E. F.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Bolker, B. M. Ecology Letters, Vol. 16, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12164	journal	August 2013
Permafrost degradation and its environmental effects on the Tibetan Plateau: A review of recent research Yang, Meixue; Nelson, Frederick E.; Shiklomanov, Nikolay I. Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 103, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.07.002	journal	November 2010
Biogeochemistry of Methane Exchange between Natural Wetlands and the Atmosphere Whalen, S. C. Environmental Engineering Science, Vol. 22, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1089/ees.2005.22.73	journal	January 2005
Database of Ice-Rich Yedoma Permafrost Version 2 (IRYP v2) Strauss, Jens; Laboor, Sebastian; Schirrmeister, Lutz PANGAEA https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.940078	dataset	January 2022
Influences of forest fires on the permafrost environment: A review Li, Xiao-Ying; Jin, Hui-Jun; Wang, Hong-Wei Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.01.001	journal	February 2021
Spatial heterogeneity and environmental predictors of permafrost region soil organic carbon stocks Mishra, Umakant; Hugelius, Gustaf; Shelef, Eitan Science Advances, Vol. 7, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz5236	journal	February 2021
Submarine Permafrost Map in the Arctic Modeled Using 1‐D Transient Heat Flux (SuPerMAP) Overduin, P. P.; Schneider von Deimling, T.; Miesner, F. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 124, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014675	journal	June 2019
Data for: "Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: regional patterns and uncertainties" Virkkala, Anna-Maria; Aalto, Juha; Rogers, Brendan M. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4519583	dataset	January 2021
Permafrost Landscape History Shapes Fluvial Chemistry, Ecosystem Carbon Balance, and Potential Trajectories of Future Change Zolkos, Scott; Tank, Suzanne E.; Kokelj, Steven V. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 36, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007403	journal	September 2022
Widespread global peatland establishment and persistence over the last 130,000 y Treat, Claire C.; Kleinen, Thomas; Broothaerts, Nils Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1813305116	journal	February 2019
The current state of CO ₂ flux chamber studies in the Arctic tundra: A review Virkkala, Anna-Maria; Virtanen, Tarmo; Lehtonen, Aleksi Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 42, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133317745784	journal	December 2017
Differential response of carbon fluxes to climate in three peatland ecosystems that vary in the presence and stability of permafrost: Carbon fluxes and permafrost thaw Euskirchen, E. S.; Edgar, C. W.; Turetsky, M. R. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 119, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JG002683	journal	August 2014
Plant functional types as predictors of transient responses of arctic vegetation to global change Chapin, F. Stuart; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Hobbie, Sarah E. Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2307/3236278	journal	June 1996
Biotic controls on CO₂ and CH₄ exchange in wetlands – a closed environment study Christensen, Torben R.; Panikov, Nicolai; Mastepanov, Mihail Biogeochemistry, Vol. 64, Issue 3, p. 337-354 https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1024913730848	journal	January 2003