Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Journal Article · 06 February 2024 · Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01231-y · OSTI ID:2290396

McManamay, Ryan A. ; Vernon, Chris R. ; Chen, Min; Thompson, Isaac; Khan, Zarrar ; Narayan, Kanishka B.

Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1 ^st -order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km ² of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr ⁻¹ , potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO ₂ yr ⁻¹ . Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1 ^st -order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 2290396
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 2299510
• Journal Information: Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Communications Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 5; ISSN 2662-4435
• Publisher: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United Kingdom
• Language: English