Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

Li, Lechen; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Modi, Vijay; Culligan, Patricia J.

doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.111330

Title: Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

Journal Article · 03 August 2021 · Energy and Buildings

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.111330 · OSTI ID:2281911

Li, Lechen ^[1]; Meinrenken, Christoph J. ^[2]; Modi, Vijay ^[2]; Culligan, Patricia J. ^[3]

Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Columbia University
Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); University of Notre Dame, IN (United States)

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

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Research Organization:: Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Efficiency Office. Building Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: EE0007684

OSTI ID:: 2281911

Journal Information:: Energy and Buildings, Journal Name: Energy and Buildings Vol. 251; ISSN 0378-7788

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

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