Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models
[1];
[2];
[4];
[5]
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, Polar Bears International, Bozeman, MT 59772
- Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY 10964
Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas–driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor–holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. It indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0022070; SC0022302
- OSTI ID:
- 2263324
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 2472168
- Journal Information:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 121; ISSN 0027-8424
- Publisher:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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