Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference

Love, Sarah J.; Edwards, Joseph D.; Barnes, Caitlin N.; d’Entremont, Tyler W.; Hord, Ashlynn M.; Nytko, Alivia G.; Sero, Nadejda B.; Bayliss, Shannon L. J.; Kivlin, Stephanie N.; Bailey, Joseph K.; Males, ed., Jamie

doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320

Title: Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference

Journal Article · 05 December 2023 · PLOS Climate

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320 · OSTI ID:2228769

;

; Barnes, Caitlin N.;

;

; Bayliss, Shannon L. J.;

; Bailey, Joseph K.; Males, ed., Jamie

Understanding the responses of plants, microbes, and their interactions to long-term climate change is essential to identifying the traits, genes, and functions of organisms that maintain ecosystem stability and function of the biosphere. However, many studies investigating organismal responses to climate change are limited in their scope along several key ecological, evolutionary, and environmental axes, creating barriers to broader inference. Broad inference, or the ability to apply and validate findings across these axes, is a vital component of achieving climate preparedness in the future. Breaking barriers to broad inference requires accurate cross-ecosystem interpretability and the identification of reliable frameworks for how these responses will manifest. Current approaches have generated a valuable, yet sometimes contradictory or context dependent, understanding of responses to climate change factors from the organismal- to ecosystem-level. In this synthesis, we use plants, soil microbial communities, and their interactions as examples to identify five major barriers to broad inference and resultant target research areas. We also explain risks associated with disregarding these barriers to broad inference and potential approaches to overcoming them. Developing and funding experimental frameworks that integrate basic ecological and evolutionary principles and are designed to capture broad inference across levels of organization is necessary to further our understanding of climate change on large scales.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

OSTI ID:: 2228769

Journal Information:: PLOS Climate, Journal Name: PLOS Climate Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 2; ISSN 2767-3200

Publisher:: Public Library of Science (PLoS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations: Climate change outcomes for tree populations Aitken, Sally N.; Yeaman, Sam; Holliday, Jason A. Evolutionary Applications, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-4571.2007.00013.x	journal	January 2008

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