Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century

Zhang, Shufan; Zhou, Nan; Feng, Wei; Ma, Minda; Xiang, Xiwang; You, Kairui

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121164

Title: Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century

Journal Article · 25 April 2023 · Applied Energy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121164 · OSTI ID:2228596

^[1]; Zhou, Nan ^[2]; Feng, Wei ^[2];

^[2]; Xiang, Xiwang ^[1]; You, Kairui ^[1]

Chongqing Univ. (China)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

With global carbon budget targets looming, residential buildings in top economies must become carbon neutral as soon as possible to reserve more emission space for emerging carbon-emitting economies. This study is the first to compare the operational decarbonization process of China’s and the United States (US) residential buildings from 2000 to 2060 by combining the end-use emission model with the decomposing structural decomposition (DSD) method and Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that from 2001 to 2020 China decarbonized 1544 mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂) and the US decarbonized 1848 MtCO₂. In the business-as-usual scenario, China will hit its emission peak in 2031 (±3) with 934 (±61) MtCO₂, while the US will maintain a lock-in level of 736 (±133) MtCO₂ since the 2030s. In the decarbonization scenario, operational carbon neutrality for residential buildings in 2060 is promoted by an increase in clean power generation proportion, building-integrated power generation level, building electrification level, and a reduction in end-use energy intensity, which will contribute 34.4 %, 21.4 %, 14.3 %, and 29.9 % in China and 32.9 %, 33.1 %, 8.2 %, and 25.8 % in the US, respectively. Especially, building-integrated power generation in China only costs about 40 % of what it costs in the US. Besides, high-decarbonization strategies for residential building operations are proposed as references for governments to formulate targeted climate policies. Overall, this study offers data benchmarks for buildings’ carbon neutrality of top economies to further promote synergistic carbon neutrality with the buildings of emerging economies in the age of Post COP27.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 2228596

Journal Information:: Applied Energy, Vol. 342; ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (75)

Identifying decarbonisation opportunities using marginal abatement cost curves and energy system scenario ensembles Yue, Xiufeng; Deane, J. P.; O'Gallachoir, Brian Applied Energy, Vol. 276 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115456	journal	October 2020
A semantic ontology for representing and quantifying energy flexibility of buildings Li, Han; Hong, Tianzhen Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100113	journal	December 2022
Implications of passive energy efficiency measures on life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of high-rise residential building envelopes Rivera, M. Lizeth; MacLean, Heather L.; McCabe, Brenda Energy and Buildings, Vol. 249 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.111202	journal	October 2021
A comparative analysis of green building rating systems in China and the United States Li, Xianglin; Feng, Wei; Liu, Xiaojing Sustainable Cities and Society, Vol. 93 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104520	journal	June 2023
Location matters: Population density and carbon emissions from residential building energy use in the United States Timmons, David; Zirogiannis, Nikolaos; Lutz, Manuel Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 22 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.08.011	journal	December 2016
Exogenous influences on deployment and profitability of photovoltaics for self-consumption in multi-apartment buildings in Australia and Austria Fina, Bernadette; Roberts, Mike B.; Auer, Hans Applied Energy, Vol. 283 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116309	journal	February 2021
Uncertainty in potential savings from improving energy label: A Monte Carlo study of the Swiss residential buildings Cozza, Stefano; Patel, Martin K.; Chambers, Jonathan Energy and Buildings, Vol. 271 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112333	journal	September 2022
Low-carbon transformation of the regional electric power supply structure in China: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model with resource endowment constraints Yao, Xilong; Lei, Haitao; Yang, Lili Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 167 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105315	journal	April 2021
Multi-level optimal dispatch strategy and profit-sharing mechanism for unlocking energy flexibilities of non-residential building clusters in electricity markets of multiple flexibility services Tang, Hong; Wang, Shengwei Renewable Energy, Vol. 201 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.10.089	journal	December 2022
China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David; Khanna, Nina Zheng Energy Policy, Vol. 53 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.065	journal	February 2013
Quantification of the carbon emission of urban residential buildings: The case of the Greater Bay Area cities in China Geng, Jingjing; Wang, Jiajia; Huang, Jianguang Environmental Impact Assessment Review, Vol. 95 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2022.106775	journal	July 2022
Life cycle assessment for carbon emission impact analysis for the renovation of old residential areas Luo, Xiaoyu; Ren, Mengyu; Zhao, Jiahong Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 367 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132930	journal	September 2022
What decarbonized the residential building operation worldwide since the 2000s Ma, Min-Da; Chen, Min-Xia; Feng, Wei Petroleum Science, Vol. 19, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2022.10.016	journal	December 2022
Carbon Kuznets curve in China's building operations: Retrospective and prospective trajectories Chen, Minxia; Ma, Minda; Lin, Yinchao Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 803 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150104	journal	January 2022
Design and operation optimization of city-level off-grid hydro–photovoltaic complementary system Zhang, Bo; Qiu, Rui; Liao, Qi Applied Energy, Vol. 306 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118000	journal	January 2022
Evaluating decarbonization scenarios and energy management requirement for the residential sector in Japan through bottom-up simulations of energy end-use demand in 2050 Shimoda, Yoshiyuki; Sugiyama, Minami; Nishimoto, Ryuya Applied Energy, Vol. 303 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117510	journal	December 2021
The impact of political connections on firm pollution: New evidence based on heterogeneous environmental regulation Wang, Zongrun; Fu, Haiqin; Ren, Xiaohang Petroleum Science https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2022.10.019	journal	October 2022
High resolution photovoltaic power generation potential assessments of rooftop in China Wang, Lichao; Xu, Shengzhi; Gong, Youkang Energy Reports, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.10.396	journal	November 2022
The impact of state level residential building code stringency on energy consumption in the United States Kellogg, Karen A.; Cumbre-Gibbs, Nicol La Energy and Buildings, Vol. 278 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112607	journal	January 2023
Quantifying the impact of residential space heating electrification on the Texas electric grid White, Philip R.; Rhodes, Joshua D.; Wilson, Eric J. H. Applied Energy, Vol. 298 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117113	journal	September 2021
Embodied GHG emissions of buildings – The hidden challenge for effective climate change mitigation Röck, Martin; Saade, Marcella Ruschi Mendes; Balouktsi, Maria Applied Energy, Vol. 258 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114107	journal	January 2020
On the tradeoffs between embodied and operational carbon in building envelope design: The impact of local climates and energy grids Méndez Echenagucia, Tomás; Moroseos, Teresa; Meek, Christopher Energy and Buildings, Vol. 278 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112589	journal	January 2023
Decarbonizing or illusion? How carbon emissions of commercial building operations change worldwide Chen, Liming; Ma, Minda; Xiang, Xiwang Sustainable Cities and Society, Vol. 96 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104654	journal	September 2023
Historical carbon abatement in the commercial building operation: China versus the US Zhang, Shufan; Ma, Minda; Li, Kai Energy Economics, Vol. 105 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105712	journal	January 2022
Emerging information and communication technologies for smart energy systems and renewable transition Zhao, Ning; Zhang, Haoran; Yang, Xiaohu Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2023.100125	journal	February 2023
Factorial decomposition of CO2 emissions: A generalized Divisia index approach Vaninsky, Alexander Energy Economics, Vol. 45 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.07.008	journal	September 2014
Decarbonizing residential buildings in the developing world: Historical cases from China Yan, Ran; Xiang, Xiwang; Cai, Weiguang Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 847 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157679	journal	November 2022
GIScience can facilitate the development of solar cities for energy transition Zhu, Rui; Kwan, Mei-Po; Perera, A. T. D. Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2023.100129	journal	June 2023
Assessment of operational carbon emission reduction of energy conservation measures for commercial buildings: Model development Liang, Yumin; Pan, Yiqun; Yuan, Xiaolei Energy and Buildings, Vol. 268 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112189	journal	August 2022
Defining and applying an electricity demand flexibility benchmarking metrics framework for grid-interactive efficient commercial buildings Liu, Jingjing; Yin, Rongxin; Yu, Lili Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100107	journal	December 2022
Remote sensing of photovoltaic scenarios: Techniques, applications and future directions Chen, Qi; Li, Xinyuan; Zhang, Zhengjia Applied Energy, Vol. 333 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120579	journal	March 2023
Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States Berrill, Peter; Wilson, Eric J. H.; Reyna, Janet L. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01429-y	journal	August 2022
Investigation of a solar heating system assisted by coupling with electromagnetic heating unit and phase change energy storage tank: Towards sustainable rural buildings in northern China Feng, Guohui; Wang, Gang; Li, Qiyan Sustainable Cities and Society, Vol. 80 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103449	journal	May 2022
Driving forces of Iran's CO2 emissions from energy consumption: An LMDI decomposition approach Mousavi, Babak; Lopez, Neil Stephen A.; Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel Applied Energy, Vol. 206 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.199	journal	November 2017
CO 2 emissions in China's building sector through 2050: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model Yang, Tao; Pan, Yiqun; Yang, Yikun Energy, Vol. 128 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.098	journal	June 2017
How does fiscal decentralization affect CO2 emissions? The roles of institutions and human capital Khan, Zeeshan; Ali, Shahid; Dong, Kangyin Energy Economics, Vol. 94 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105060	journal	February 2021
Heterogeneity or illusion? Track the carbon Kuznets curve of global residential building operations Yan, Ran; Chen, Minxia; Xiang, Xiwang Applied Energy, Vol. 347 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121441	journal	October 2023
The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide Ang, B. W. Energy Policy, Vol. 33, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.010	journal	May 2005
China's flexibility challenge in achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 Li, Jianglong; Ho, Mun Sing; Xie, Chunping Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 158 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112112	journal	April 2022
Drivers and evolution of low-carbon development in China's transportation industry: An integrated analytical approach Chen, Qingjuan; Wang, Qunwei; Zhou, Dequn Energy, Vol. 262 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125614	journal	January 2023
Operational carbon transition in the megalopolises’ commercial buildings Ma, Minda; Feng, Wei; Huo, Jingwen Building and Environment, Vol. 226 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109705	journal	December 2022
Uncovering driving factors of carbon emissions from China’s mining sector Shao, Shuai; Liu, Jianghua; Geng, Yong Applied Energy, Vol. 166 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.01.047	journal	March 2016
Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050 Zhou, Nan; Khanna, Nina; Feng, Wei Nature Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6	journal	October 2018
Beyond Energy Efficiency: A clustering approach to embed demand flexibility into building energy benchmarking Andrews, Abigail; Jain, Rishee K. Applied Energy, Vol. 327 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119989	journal	December 2022
Energy flexibility of residential buildings: A systematic review of characterization and quantification methods and applications Li, Han; Wang, Zhe; Hong, Tianzhen Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100054	journal	August 2021
How does industrial structure adjustment reduce CO2 emissions? Spatial and mediation effects analysis for China Zhao, Jun; Jiang, Qingzhe; Dong, Xiucheng Energy Economics, Vol. 105 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105704	journal	January 2022
Planning urban energy systems adapting to extreme weather Jing, Rui; Wang, Xiaonan; Zhao, Yingru Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100053	journal	August 2021
Assessing drivers of economy-wide energy use and emissions: IDA versus SDA Wang, H.; Ang, B. W.; Su, Bin Energy Policy, Vol. 107 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.034	journal	August 2017
Energy efficiency in residential buildings amid COVID-19: A holistic comparative analysis between old and new normal occupancies Rana, Anber; Kamali, Mohammad; Riyadh, M. Mohammed Energy and Buildings, Vol. 277 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112551	journal	December 2022
Estimating and minimizing embodied carbon of prefabricated high-rise residential buildings considering parameter, scenario and model uncertainties Teng, Yue; Pan, Wei Building and Environment, Vol. 180 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2020.106951	journal	August 2020
Political connections and corporate carbon emission: New evidence from Chinese industrial firms Wang, Zongrun; Fu, Haiqin; Ren, Xiaohang Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 188 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122326	journal	March 2023
Model predictive control in phase-change-material-wallboard-enhanced building energy management considering electricity price dynamics Yang, Shiyu; Oliver Gao, H.; You, Fengqi Applied Energy, Vol. 326 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120023	journal	November 2022
The change in temporal trend and spatial distribution of CO2 emissions of China's public and commercial buildings You, Kairui; Yu, Yanhui; Cai, Weiguang Building and Environment, Vol. 229 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109956	journal	February 2023
Approaches to cost-effective near-net zero energy new homes with time-of-use value of energy and battery storage Wei, Max; Lee, Sang Hoon; Hong, Tianzhen Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100018	journal	May 2021
Impact of model predictive control-enabled home energy management on large-scale distribution systems with photovoltaics Wu, Hongyu; Pratt, Annabelle; Munankarmi, Prateek Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100094	journal	June 2022
Electrifying High-Efficiency Future Communities: Impact on Energy, Emissions, and Grid Wang, Jing; Kontar, Rawad El; Jin, Xin Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100095	journal	June 2022
Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak Ma, Minda; Ma, Xin; Cai, Wei Applied Energy, Vol. 273 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115247	journal	September 2020
Influence of electricity prices on energy flexibility of integrated hybrid heat pump and thermal storage systems in a residential building Fitzpatrick, Peter; D’Ettorre, Francesco; De Rosa, Mattia Energy and Buildings, Vol. 223 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110142	journal	September 2020
Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China Zhou, Wei; Moncaster, Alice; O'Neill, Eoghan Energy Policy, Vol. 165 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112932	journal	June 2022
Potential benefits of cool walls on residential and commercial buildings across California and the United States: Conserving energy, saving money, and reducing emission of greenhouse gases and air pollutants Rosado, Pablo J.; Levinson, Ronnen Energy and Buildings, Vol. 199 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.02.028	journal	September 2019
Technologies and economics of electric energy storages in power systems: Review and perspective He, Wei; King, Marcus; Luo, Xing Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100060	journal	November 2021
Driving forces and mitigating strategies of CO2 emissions in China: A decomposition analysis based on 38 industrial sub-sectors Wen, Hong-xing; Chen, Zhe; Yang, Qian Energy, Vol. 245 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123262	journal	April 2022
Modeling carbon emission trend in China's building sector to year 2060 You, Kairui; Ren, Hong; Cai, Weiguang Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 188 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106679	journal	January 2023
How to achieve China’s CO2 emission reduction targets by provincial efforts? – An analysis based on generalized Divisia index and dynamic scenario simulation Zhang, Xi; Geng, Yong; Shao, Shuai Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 127 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.109892	journal	July 2020
Carbon reduction in commercial building operations: A provincial retrospection in China Li, Kai; Ma, Minda; Xiang, Xiwang Applied Energy, Vol. 306 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118098	journal	January 2022
Potential to decarbonize the commercial building operation of the top two emitters by 2060 Zhang, Shufan; Ma, Minda; Xiang, Xiwang Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 185 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106481	journal	October 2022
How does digital finance affect industrial structure upgrading? Evidence from Chinese prefecture-level cities Ren, Xiaohang; Zeng, Gudian; Gozgor, Giray Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 330 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117125	journal	March 2023
The effect of carbon dioxide emissions on the building energy efficiency Min, Ji; Yan, Gongxing; Abed, Azher M. Fuel, Vol. 326 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2022.124842	journal	October 2022
Analysing residential energy consumption using index decomposition analysis Xu, X. Y.; Ang, B. W. Applied Energy, Vol. 113 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.07.052	journal	January 2014
Historical decarbonization of global commercial building operations in the 21st century Xiang, Xiwang; Ma, Minda; Ma, Xin Applied Energy, Vol. 322 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119401	journal	September 2022
Large-scale evaluation of the suitability of buildings for photovoltaic integration: Case study in Greater Geneva Thebault, Martin; Desthieux, Gilles; Castello, Roberto Applied Energy, Vol. 316 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119127	journal	June 2022
Decomposing structural decomposition: The role of changes in individual industry shares Boratyński, Jakub Energy Economics, Vol. 103 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105587	journal	November 2021
Carbon emission responsive building control: A case study with an all-electric residential community in a cold climate Wang, Jing; Munankarmi, Prateek; Maguire, Jeff Applied Energy, Vol. 314 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118910	journal	May 2022
Electrification with flexibility towards local energy decarbonization Jing, Rui; Zhou, Yue; Wu, Jianzhong Advances in Applied Energy, Vol. 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100088	journal	February 2022
Cost-efficient decarbonization of local energy systems by whole-system based design optimization Jing, Rui; Hua, Weiqi; Lin, Jian Applied Energy, Vol. 326 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119921	journal	November 2022

Similar Records

Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China

Journal Article · 2023 · Energy · OSTI ID:1985721

Zou, Chenchen; Ma, Minda; Zhou, Nan; +3 more

What decarbonized the residential building operation worldwide since the 2000s

Journal Article · 2022 · Petroleum Science (Online) · OSTI ID:1895504

Ma, Min-Da; Chen, Min-Xia; Feng, Wei; +1 more

Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India

Journal Article · 2023 · Applied Energy · OSTI ID:2439962

Yan, Ran; Ma, Minda; Zhou, Nan; +3 more

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
residential building
operational decarbonization
carbon neutral pathway
end-use activity
decomposing structural decomposition
Monte Carlo simulation

Title: Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century

Citation Formats

References (75)

Similar Records

Related Subjects