Title: Assessing Latent and Kinetic Energy Trend Changes in Extratropical Cyclones From 1940 to 2020: Results From ERA‐5 Reanalysis

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]
  1. Cooperative Institute for Severe and High Impact Weather and Research Operations University of Oklahoma Norman OK USA
  2. Cooperative Institute for Severe and High Impact Weather and Research Operations University of Oklahoma Norman OK USA, School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma Norman OK USA
  3. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Boulder CO USA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Physical Sciences Laboratory Boulder CO USA
  4. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin Madison WI USA

Abstract Baroclinic or extratropical cyclones (ETCs) transport heat and moisture to higher latitudes, making it fundamentally important to understand how their influence changes as Earth's climate evolves. A 2–8‐day Lanzcos bandpass filter is applied to European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting 5th Generation Reanalysis latent energy (LE) and kinetic energy (KE) data to assess how ETCs have changed from 1940 to 2020 relative to full‐scale changes in LE and KE. Full‐scale KE trends are more positive at high latitudes relative to mid‐latitudes, confirming several previous studies that ETCs have shifted poleward. LE increases have occurred globally, and trends in both full‐scale LE and KE are statistically significant in the southern high latitudes. The high relative fractional contribution of 2–8‐day LE wave power and trend clearly suggest that ETCs have an increasingly important role in poleward moisture transport but are not solely responsible for the observed statistically significant increases.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Archive
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Contributing Organization:
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0023078
OSTI ID:
2222968
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 23 Vol. 50; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (50)

Influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on baroclinic instability and storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere journal July 2020
The ERA5 global reanalysis journal June 2020
Turbulence and equatorial waves in moist and dry shallow‐water flow, excited through mesoscale stochastic forcing journal December 2021
The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?: Impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream journal March 2015
The global heat balance: heat transports in the atmosphere and ocean journal August 1994
Changes in storm tracks and energy transports in a warmer climate simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 model journal March 2010
Croll revisited: Why is the northern hemisphere warmer than the southern hemisphere? journal April 2014
The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones journal November 2019
North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation journal February 2010
A regime view of northern hemisphere atmospheric variability and change under global warming journal April 2000
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate: POLEWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACKS journal September 2005
Geographic variability in the export of moist static energy and vertical motion profiles in the tropical Pacific journal January 2006
Time of emergence of climate signals: TIME OF EMERGENCE OF CLIMATE SIGNALS journal January 2012
The Sensitivity of the Jet Stream Response to Climate Change to Radiative Assumptions journal April 2019
Investigating the Influence of Cloud Radiative Effects on the Extratropical Storm Tracks journal July 2019
Characteristics of Barotropic Energy Conversion in Rapid Intensifying and Decaying Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific journal February 2023
The Global Nature of Early‐Afternoon and Late‐Night Convection Through the Eyes of the A‐Train journal July 2022
Factors affecting the detection of trends: Statistical considerations and applications to environmental data
  • Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Reinsel, Gregory C.; Tiao, George C.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 103, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD00995
journal July 1998
Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes journal April 1999
Earth’s changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change journal January 2017
The future poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere summer mid-latitude storm tracks stems from ocean coupling journal April 2022
Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns journal May 2020
Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change journal October 2010
Convergence to precipitating quasi-geostrophic equations with phase changes: asymptotics and numerical assessment
  • Zhang, Yeyu; Smith, Leslie M.; Stechmann, Samuel N.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 380, Issue 2226 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0030
journal May 2022
Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America journal June 2017
Estimates of Meridional Atmosphere and Ocean Heat Transports journal August 2001
Lanczos Filtering in One and Two Dimensions journal August 1979
zonal Wavenumber Characteristics of Northern Hemisphere Transient Eddies journal September 1982
The Role of Moisture in the Dynamics and Energetics of Turbulent Baroclinic Eddies journal July 2004
The Life Cycles of Jet Streams and Extratropical Cyclones journal June 1954
Inertial Available Kinetic Energy and the Dynamics of Tropical Plume Formation journal August 1998
The Effective Static Stability Experienced by Eddies in a Moist Atmosphere journal January 2011
NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2) journal November 2002
Column-Integrated Moist Static Energy Budget Analysis on Various Time Scales during TOGA COARE journal May 2015
Sensitivity of Idealized Moist Baroclinic Waves to Environmental Temperature and Moisture Content journal January 2018
Interactions between Water Vapor and Potential Vorticity in Synoptic-Scale Monsoonal Disturbances: Moisture Vortex Instability journal June 2018
Moist Static Potential Vorticity Budget in Tropical Motion Systems journal March 2022
Changes in U.S. East Coast Cyclone Dynamics with Climate Change journal January 2015
Eddy Lifetime, Number, and Diffusivity and the Suppression of Eddy Kinetic Energy in Midwinter journal June 2018
Seasonal and Subseasonal Variability of Potential Energy Injected into the Tropical UTLS by Convective and Tropical Cyclone Outflow journal November 2019
Moist Static Energy Budget Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models journal September 2019
Uncertainty in Forced and Natural Arctic Solar Absorption Variations in CMIP6 Models journal February 2021
Long-Term Trends of the Atmospheric Circulation and Moist Static Energy Budget in the JRA-55 Reanalysis journal May 2023
Precipitation and Cloud Structure in Midlatitude Cyclones journal January 2007
Southern Hemisphere Winter Extratropical Cyclone Characteristics and Vertical Organization Observed with the ERA-40 Data in 1979–2001 journal June 2007
Moisture–convection feedback in the tropics journal October 2004
Atmospheric Energy Budgets in the Japanese Reanalysis: Evaluation and Variability journal January 2008
ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present dataset March 2024
Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change journal January 2023
Vertical cloud structure of warm conveyor belts – a comparison and evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis, CloudSat and CALIPSO data journal October 2020