Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

Journal Article · 28 August 2023 · Annals of Nuclear Energy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anucene.2023.109932 · OSTI ID:2222672

Nguyen, Tat Nghia ^[1]; Vilim, Richard B. ^[1]

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1. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE); USDOE Office of Science (SC)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-06CH11357
• OSTI ID: 2222672
• Journal Information: Annals of Nuclear Energy, Journal Name: Annals of Nuclear Energy Vol. 194; ISSN 0306-4549
• Publisher: ElsevierCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English