Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility

Hoehne, Christopher; Muratori, Matteo; Jadun, Paige; Bush, Brian; Yip, Arthur; Ledna, Catherine; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Podkaminer, Kara; Ma, Ookie

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-42483-0

Title: Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility

Journal Article · 29 October 2023 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42483-0 · OSTI ID:2204079

;

; Jadun, Paige;

;

; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Podkaminer, Kara; Ma, Ookie

Abstract Passenger and freight travel account for 28% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions today. We explore pathways to reduce transportation emissions using NREL’s TEMPO model under bounding assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancement, and policies. Results show diverse routes to 80% or more well-to-wheel GHG reductions by 2050. Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles coupled with a clean electric grid is essential for deep decarbonization; in the median scenario, zero-emission vehicle sales reach 89% for passenger light-duty and 69% for freight trucks by 2030 and 100% sales for both by 2040. Up to 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity could be needed in 2050 to power plug-in electric vehicles. Increased sustainable biofuel usage is also essential for decarbonizing aviation (10–42 billion gallons needed in 2050) and to support legacy vehicles during the transition. Managing travel demand growth can ease this transition by reducing the need for clean electricity and sustainable fuels.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: NONE; AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 2204079

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2228662

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 14; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

References (64)

Novel and Practical Method to Quantify the Quality of Mobility: Mobility Energy Productivity Metric Hou, Yi; Garikapati, Venu; Nag, Ambarish Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2673, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198119848705	journal	May 2019
Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget Alarfaj, Abdullah F.; Griffin, W. Michael; Samaras, Constantine Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7c89	journal	September 2020
Assessing the value of electric vehicle managed charging: a review of methodologies and results Anwar, Muhammad Bashar; Muratori, Matteo; Jadun, Paige Energy & Environmental Science, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1039/D1EE02206G	journal	January 2022
Trend towards virtual and hybrid conferences may be an effective climate change mitigation strategy Tao, Yanqiu; Steckel, Debbie; Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír Nature Communications, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27251-2	journal	December 2021
There's No Place Like Home: Residential Parking, Electrical Access, and Implications for the Future of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Ge, Yanbo; Simeone, Christina; Duvall, Andrew https://doi.org/10.2172/1825510	report	October 2021
The rise of electric vehicles—2020 status and future expectations Muratori, Matteo; Alexander, Marcus; Arent, Doug Progress in Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/2516-1083/abe0ad	journal	March 2021
Meeting an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050: A case study in California Yang, Christopher; McCollum, David; McCarthy, Ryan Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2008.11.010	journal	May 2009
The impact of residential density on vehicle usage and energy consumption Brownstone, David; Golob, Thomas F. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 65, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.09.002	journal	January 2009
The Future of Hydrogen https://doi.org/10.1787/1e0514c4-en	book	June 2019
Environmental assessment of passenger transportation should include infrastructure and supply chains Chester, Mikhail V.; Horvath, Arpad Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024008	journal	April 2009
It is not how far you go, it is whether you can get there: modeling the effects of mobility on quality of life in rural New England Kolodinsky, Jane M.; DeSisto, Thomas Patrick; Propen, David Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 31 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.05.011	journal	July 2013
Exploring the future energy-mobility nexus: The transportation energy & mobility pathway options (TEMPO) model Muratori, Matteo; Jadun, Paige; Bush, Brian Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 98 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102967	journal	September 2021
Global travel within the 2°C climate target Girod, Bastien; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Deetman, Sebastiaan Energy Policy, Vol. 45 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.008	journal	June 2012
The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Executive Summary Cochran, Jaquelin; Denholm, Paul; Mooney, Meghan https://doi.org/10.2172/1774871	report	March 2021
On investigating the potential effects of private autonomous vehicle use on home/work relocations and commute times Moore, Michael A.; Lavieri, Patrícia S.; Dias, Felipe F. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol. 110 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2019.11.013	journal	January 2020
Travel and the Built Environment: A Synthesis Ewing, Reid; Cervero, Robert Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1780, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3141/1780-10	journal	January 2001
Patterns of automobile dependence in cities: an international overview of key physical and economic dimensions with some implications for urban policy Kenworthy, Jeffrey R.; Laube, Felix B. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 33, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0965-8564(99)00006-3	journal	September 1999
Electrification of light-duty vehicle fleet alone will not meet mitigation targets Milovanoff, Alexandre; Posen, I. Daniel; MacLean, Heather L. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00921-7	journal	September 2020
Comparing High and Low Residential Density: Life-Cycle Analysis of Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Norman, Jonathan; MacLean, Heather L.; Kennedy, Christopher A. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Vol. 132, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2006)132:1(10)	journal	March 2006
Travel and energy implications of ridesourcing service in Austin, Texas Wenzel, Tom; Rames, Clement; Kontou, Eleftheria Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 70 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.03.005	journal	May 2019
Future integrated mobility-energy systems: A modeling perspective Muratori, Matteo; Jadun, Paige; Bush, Brian Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 119 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109541	journal	March 2020
Integrating Life-cycle Environmental and Economic Assessment with Transportation and Land Use Planning Chester, Mikhail V.; Nahlik, Matthew J.; Fraser, Andrew M. Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 47, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1021/es402985g	journal	October 2013
Running a car costs much more than people think — stalling the uptake of green travel Andor, Mark A.; Gerster, Andreas; Gillingham, Kenneth T. Nature, Vol. 580, Issue 7804 https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-01118-w	journal	April 2020
The value of car ownership and use in the United States Moody, Joanna; Farr, Elizabeth; Papagelis, Marisa Nature Sustainability, Vol. 4, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00731-5	journal	June 2021
Good to Go? Assessing the Environmental Performance of New Mobility https://doi.org/10.1787/f5cd236b-en	report	September 2020
A systematic review of the energy and climate impacts of teleworking Hook, Andrew; Court, Victor; Sovacool, Benjamin K. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a84	journal	August 2020
Travel behavior as a driver of attitude: Car use and car pride in U.S. cities Moody, Joanna; Zhao, Jinhua Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, Vol. 74 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2020.08.021	journal	October 2020
Life-cycle energy implications of different residential settings: Recognizing buildings, travel, and public infrastructure Nichols, Brice G.; Kockelman, Kara M. Energy Policy, Vol. 68 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.062	journal	May 2014
Realizing the electric-vehicle revolution Tran, Martino; Banister, David; Bishop, Justin D. K. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1429	journal	April 2012
MaaS economics: Should we fight car ownership with subscriptions to alternative modes? Hörcher, Daniel; Graham, Daniel J. Economics of Transportation, Vol. 22 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecotra.2020.100167	journal	June 2020
Exploring the relationship between ride-sourcing services and vehicle ownership, using both inferential and machine learning approaches Sabouri, Sadegh; Brewer, Simon; Ewing, Reid Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 198 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103797	journal	June 2020
Understanding attitudes towards public transport and private car: A qualitative study Beirão, Gabriela; Sarsfield Cabral, J. A. Transport Policy, Vol. 14, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2007.04.009	journal	November 2007
Revisiting the impacts of virtual mobility on travel behavior: An exploration of daily travel time expenditures Ozbilen, Basar; Wang, Kailai; Akar, Gulsah Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 145 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.01.002	journal	March 2021
US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets Feijoo, Felipe; Iyer, Gokul; Binsted, Matthew Climatic Change, Vol. 162, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02670-0	journal	February 2020
Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model Ou, Yang; Kittner, Noah; Babaee, Samaneh Applied Energy, Vol. 300 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117364	journal	October 2021
Autonomous taxis could greatly reduce greenhouse-gas emissions of US light-duty vehicles Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Saxena, Samveg Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2685	journal	July 2015
Improving future travel demand projections: a pathway with an open science interdisciplinary approach Yeh, Sonia; Gil, Jorge; Kyle, Page Progress in Energy, Vol. 4, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/2516-1083/ac86b5	journal	August 2022
Can regional transportation and land-use planning achieve deep reductions in GHG emissions from vehicles? Tayarani, Mohammad; Poorfakhraei, Amir; Nadafianshahamabadi, Razieh Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 63 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.05.010	journal	August 2018
Impacts of transportation network companies on urban mobility Diao, Mi; Kong, Hui; Zhao, Jinhua Nature Sustainability, Vol. 4, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00678-z	journal	February 2021
Constructing Sobol Sequences with Better Two-Dimensional Projections Joe, Stephen; Kuo, Frances Y. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, Vol. 30, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1137/070709359	journal	January 2008
Anticipating long-distance travel shifts due to self-driving vehicles Perrine, Kenneth A.; Kockelman, Kara M.; Huang, Yantao Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 82 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2019.102547	journal	January 2020
Net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study Browning, Morgan; McFarland, James; Bistline, John Energy and Climate Change, Vol. 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100104	journal	December 2023
‘Complacent Car Addicts’ or ‘Aspiring Environmentalists’? Identifying travel behaviour segments using attitude theory Anable, Jillian Transport Policy, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2004.11.004	journal	January 2005
Religious culture and rural car ownership Newmark, Gregory L.; Rearick, Emma L. Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 93 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103035	journal	May 2021
COVID-19, internet, and mobility: The rise of telework, telehealth, e-learning, and e-shopping Mouratidis, Kostas; Papagiannakis, Apostolos Sustainable Cities and Society, Vol. 74 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103182	journal	November 2021
Road to zero: Research and industry perspectives on zero-emission commercial vehicles Muratori, Matteo; Borlaug, Brennan; Ledna, Catherine iScience, Vol. 26, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106751	journal	May 2023
2021 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook Cole, Wesley; Carag, J. Vincent; Brown, Maxwell https://doi.org/10.2172/1834042	report	November 2021
Supply elasticity matters for the rebound effect and its impact on policy comparisons Ghoddusi, Hamed; Roy, Mandira Energy Economics, Vol. 67 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.07.017	journal	September 2017
The role of shared autonomous vehicle systems in delivering smart urban mobility: A systematic review of the literature Golbabaei, Fahimeh; Yigitcanlar, Tan; Bunker, Jonathan International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, Vol. 15, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2020.1798571	journal	July 2020
Integrating Human Health into Urban and Transport Planning Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Khreis, Haneen https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74983-9	book	January 2019
Estimating energy bounds for adoption of shared micromobility Sun, Bingrong; Garikapati, Venu; Wilson, Alana Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 100 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.103012	journal	November 2021
Does Accessibility Require Density or Speed? Levine, Jonathan; Grengs, Joe; Shen, Qingyun Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 78, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2012.677119	journal	April 2012
Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States Mai, Trieu T.; Jadun, Paige; Logan, Jeffrey S. https://doi.org/10.2172/1459351	report	June 2018
The implications of Mobility as a Service for urban emissions Labee, Pim; Rasouli, Soora; Liao, Feixiong Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 102 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.103128	journal	January 2022
Summary of Expansions and Updates in GREET^® 2021 Wang, Michael; Elgowainy, Amgad; Lee, Uisung https://doi.org/10.2172/1824336	report	October 2021
Electrification Futures Study: Operational Analysis of U.S. Power Systems with Increased Electrification and Demand-Side Flexibility Zhou, Ella; Mai, Trieu https://doi.org/10.2172/1785329	report	May 2021
Neighborhood-scale urban form, travel behavior, and CO₂ emissions in Beijing: implications for low-carbon urban planning Liu, Zhilin; Ma, Jing; Chai, Yanwei Urban Geography, Vol. 38, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/02723638.2016.1191796	journal	June 2016
City CarShare: Longer-Term Travel Demand and Car Ownership Impacts Cervero, Robert; Golub, Aaron; Nee, Brendan Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1992, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3141/1992-09	journal	January 2007
Analysis of telecommuting behavior and impacts on travel demand and the environment Shabanpour, Ramin; Golshani, Nima; Tayarani, Mohammad Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 62 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.04.003	journal	July 2018
The Transition to a Hydrogen Economy Bajenescu, Titu-Marius I. Journal of Engineering Science, Vol. 29, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.52326/jes.utm.2022.29(1).05	journal	March 2022
Relationship between Spatial Proximity and Travel-to-Work Distance: The Effect of the Compact City Boussauw, Kobe; Neutens, Tijs; Witlox, Frank Regional Studies, Vol. 46, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2010.522986	journal	June 2012
Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis Ledna, Catherine; Muratori, Matteo; Yip, Arthur https://doi.org/10.2172/1854583	report	March 2022
Assessing the role of shared mobility services in reducing travel-related greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions: Focusing on America’s young adults Wang, Kailai; Liu, Haobing; Cheng, Long Travel Behaviour and Society, Vol. 26 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2021.10.005	journal	January 2022
Worldwide Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potentials in Transportation by 2050 Taptich, Michael N.; Horvath, Arpad; Chester, Mikhail V. Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 20, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12391	journal	December 2015

Similar Records

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Conference · 2023 · OSTI ID:2228665

Muratori, Matteo; Hoehne, Christopher; Jadun, Paige; +2 more

National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy

Technical Report · 2024 · OSTI ID:2562140

Miller, Kevin George; Chu, Kang-Ching (Jean); Schroeder, Alex; +2 more

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

Technical Report · 2022 · OSTI ID:1854583

Ledna, Catherine; Muratori, Matteo; Yip, Arthur; +2 more

Title: Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility

Citation Formats

References (64)

Similar Records

Related Subjects