Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades

Zhang, Xiangdong; Tang, Han; Zhang, Jing; Walsh, John E.; Roesler, Erika L.; Hillman, Benjamin; Ballinger, Thomas J.; Weijer, Wilbert

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01003-0

Title: Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades

Journal Article · 01 October 2023 · Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01003-0 · OSTI ID:2007226

^[1]; Tang, Han ^[2]; Zhang, Jing ^[3]; Walsh, John E. ^[2]; Roesler, Erika L. ^[4]; Hillman, Benjamin ^[4];

^[2];

^[5]

North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC (United States)
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC (United States)
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze multiple reanalysis datasets covering a multidecadal period with improvements to the cyclone tracking algorithm and the integrated cyclone activity metric. The results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity over the last seven decades. There has been a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones. Spatial analysis shows increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified the tropospheric waves and vortex with distinct dynamics between winter and summer. Recently enhanced baroclinicity over large areas of the Arctic and midlatitudes suggests more complicated atmospheric dynamics than what is hypothesized with Arctic-amplification-induced decrease in meridional temperature gradients.

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Research Organization:: North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Office of Naval Research (ONR); USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0020640; SC0024349

OSTI ID:: 2007226

Journal Information:: Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Communications Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 4; ISSN 2662-4435

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades Zhang, Xiangdong; Tang, Han; Zhang, Jing figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23574855	dataset	January 2023

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