The Role of Bjerknes and Shortwave Feedbacks in the Tropical Pacific SST Response to Global Warming

Fu, Minmin; Fedorov, Alexey

doi:10.1029/2023GL105061

Title: The Role of Bjerknes and Shortwave Feedbacks in the Tropical Pacific SST Response to Global Warming

Journal Article · 29 September 2023 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105061 · OSTI ID:2007098

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Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Yale University New Haven CT USA

Abstract The evolution of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in response to greenhouse warming is of great societal and scientific interest. Most state‐of‐the‐art climate models predict a mean “El Niño‐like” warming pattern by century‐end, characterized by greater warming over the Pacific cold tongue compared to the western warm pool. However, it is unclear which proposed mechanism dominates in this response. Here, we present partially coupled abrupt CO ₂ doubling experiments in which surface wind stress and shortwave heating are overridden to values from a control simulation. Contrary to previous studies, we find that experiments with overriding of surface wind stress exhibit only 58% of the full reduction in east‐west SST contrast. When both surface wind stress and shortwave flux are overridden, only 34% of the full reduction remains, controlled by spatially‐varying evaporative cooling. These results underscore the importance of Bjerknes and shortwave feedbacks in the tropical Pacific SST response to global warming.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0023134

OSTI ID:: 2007098

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 19 Vol. 50; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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