The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Johnson, Nathaniel; Kucharski, Fred; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Horan, Matthew F.; Singh, Deepti; Mahajan, Salil; Ghosh, Subimal; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Evans, Katherine J.; Islam, Shafiqul

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00462-8

Title: The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

Journal Article · 21 September 2023 · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00462-8 · OSTI ID:2001397

^[1];

^[2]; Kucharski, Fred ^[3];

^[4];

^[3];

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^[6];

^[1]; Ghosh, Subimal ^[7]; Ganguly, Auroop R. ^[8];

^[1]; Islam, Shafiqul ^[9]

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)
Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education
Washington State Univ., Vancouver, WA (United States)
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai (India)
Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar (India)
Tufts Univ., Medford, MA (United States)

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 2001397

Journal Information:: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 6, Issue 1; ISSN 2397-3722

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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