A game-theoretic approach to nuclear fuel cycle transition analysis under uncertainty

Journal Article · 29 October 2023 · Annals of Nuclear Energy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anucene.2019.107112 · OSTI ID:1997828

Phathanapirom, U. B.  ^[1]; Haas, Derek ^[2]; Leibowicz, Benjamin ^[2]

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1. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

We present a novel methodology for optimizing nuclear fuel cycle transitions that incorporates a game-theoretic approach and captures interactions among multiple decision makers. The methodology is demonstrated using a two-person sequential game with uncertainty, where the two players represent a policy maker and an electric utility company, though the method generalizes to any number and type of individual decision making entities. Coupled with a sophisticated nuclear fuel cycle simulator, rich transition scenarios may be analyzed to identify robust transition strategies. These strategies explicitly treat uncertainties using a stochastic programming approach, devising optimal near-term hedging strategies that simultaneously consider all possible states of the world, maintaining flexibility to allow for intelligent recourse decisions once uncertainties are resolved. In the demonstration game, reactor technology and fuel cycle scheme adopted by the electric utility are shown to depend on both the policy maker’s decisions and the distributions over uncertain technological and economic outcomes.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1997828
• Journal Information: Annals of Nuclear Energy, Journal Name: Annals of Nuclear Energy Journal Issue: 107112 Vol. 137; ISSN 0306-4549
• Publisher: ElsevierCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English