Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Guo, Xiuwen; Gao, Yang; Zhang, Shaoqing; Wu, Lixin; Chang, Ping; Cai, Wenju; Zscheischler, Jakob; Leung, L. Ruby; Small, Justin; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Thompson, Luanne; Gao, Huiwang

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5

Title: Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Journal Article · Thu Feb 03 00:00:00 UTC 2022 · Nature Climate Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5 · OSTI ID:1996334

Guo, Xiuwen ^[1];

^[2];

^[3];

^[4];

^[5];

^[6];

^[7];

^[8]; Small, Justin ^[9]; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ^[9]; Thompson, Luanne ^[10]; Gao, Huiwang ^[1]

Ocean University of China (China)
Ocean University of China (China); Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (China); International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), College Station, TX (United States)
Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (China); International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China (China)
International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China (China)
International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), College Station, TX (United States); Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (Australia); Ocean University of China (China); Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (China)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Germany); Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), College Station, TX (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1996334

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-179101

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 12; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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