Energy Surplus and an Atmosphere‐Land‐Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration

Xu, Donghui; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Agee, Elizabeth; Wang, Jingfeng

doi:10.1029/2022GL102677

Title: Energy Surplus and an Atmosphere‐Land‐Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration

Journal Article · 03 August 2023 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102677 · OSTI ID:1993882

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Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan‐Ann Arbor Ann Arbor MI USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan‐Ann Arbor Ann Arbor MI USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan‐Ann Arbor Ann Arbor MI USA, Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta GA USA

Abstract The 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1993882

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 15 Vol. 50; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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