Coordinating the electric vehicle transition and electricity grid decarbonization in the U.S. is not essential to achieving substantial long-term carbon dioxide emissions reductions

Journal Article · 03 July 2023 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acdd85 · OSTI ID:1988101

Leard, Benjamin; Greene, David

Abstract How quickly the US can decarbonize light-duty vehicle (LDV) transportation depends on the rates of change of electric vehicle (EV) sales, stock turnover, and grid decarbonization. We build a stock turnover model to assess how sensitive achieving 2050 LDV decarbonization targets is to these rates. We estimate carbon dioxide (CO ₂ ) reductions of 70%–85% by 2050, including emissions from vehicles and upstream electricity generation, provided that new vehicle sales transition to 100% EVs and substantial grid decarbonization are accomplished by 2050. This result is robust to continuation of long-term trends of increasing vehicle longevity, and to whether the timing of EV sales growth and grid decarbonization are coordinated. If the two key goals are met, the annual contribution of EV electricity use to CO ₂ emissions will be small over the entire period.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 1988101
• Journal Information: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 18; ISSN 1748-9326
• Publisher: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United Kingdom
• Language: English