Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Ferin, Kelsie M.; Balson, Tyler; Audia, Ellen; Ward, Adam S.; Liess, Stefan; Twine, Tracy E.; VanLoocke, Andy

doi:10.1111/gcbb.13078

Title: Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Journal Article · 28 June 2023 · Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.13078 · OSTI ID:1987744

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Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames Iowa USA, DOE Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign Illinois USA, Department of Agronomy University of Wisconsin Madison Wisconsin USA
Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering Indiana University Bloomington Indiana USA
Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management Iowa State University Ames Iowa USA, Cooperative Wildlife Research Lab Southern Illinois University Carbondale Illinois USA
O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University Bloomington Indiana USA, Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering Oregon State University Corvallis Oregon USA
Department of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames Iowa USA, DOE Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign Illinois USA

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

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Research Organization:: Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation (CABBI), Urbana, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF) Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems (INFEWS); USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Hatch; USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0018420

OSTI ID:: 1987744

Journal Information:: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy, Journal Name: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 15; ISSN 1757-1693

Publisher:: Wiley-BlackwellCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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