Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability

Journal Article · 28 June 2023 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39460-y · OSTI ID:1987729

Xue, Daokai ; Lu, Jian ; Leung, L. Ruby ; Teng, Haiyan; Song, Fengfei ; Zhou, Tianjun ; Zhang, Yaocun

Abstract The Asian monsoon provides the freshwater that a large population in Asia depends on, but how anthropogenic climate warming may alter this key water source remains unclear. This is partly due to the prevailing point-wise assessment of climate projections, even though climate change patterns are inherently organized by dynamics intrinsic to the climate system. Here, we assess the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting the precipitation from several large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 simulations onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The result shows a remarkable agreement among the ensembles on the increasing trends and the increasing daily variability in both dynamical modes, with the projection pattern emerging as early as the late 2030 s. The increase of the daily variability of the modes heralds more monsoon-related hydrological extremes over some identifiable East Asian regions in the coming decades.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1987729
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-175512; 3856; PII: 39460
• Journal Information: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 14; ISSN 2041-1723
• Publisher: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United Kingdom
• Language: English