Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Deka, Mark A.

doi:10.3390/tropicalmed7020015

Title: Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Journal Article · 18 January 2022 · Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7020015 · OSTI ID:1983139

Deka, Mark A. ^[1]

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA (United States)

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km² (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0014664

OSTI ID:: 1983139

Journal Information:: Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, Journal Name: Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 7; ISSN 2414-6366

Publisher:: MDPICopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
disease mapping
ecological niche modeling
geographic information science
precision public health
schistosomiasis

Title: Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

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