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Title: Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

Journal Article · · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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  1. Univ. of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland (United Kingdom)
  2. ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
  3. Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
  4. Federal University of Technology, Akure (Nigeria)
  5. California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA (United States)
  6. Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi (Kenya)
  7. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Hobart, TAS (Australia)
  8. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
  9. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany). Inst. of Meteorology and Climate Research
  10. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Earth Institute
  11. Barcelona Supercomputing Center (Spain)
  12. National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira (Brazil). Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies
  13. Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography
  14. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)
  15. Universidad de San Carlos, Guatemala City (Guatemala)
  16. United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)
  17. British Telecommunications PLC, London (United Kingdom)
  18. Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Abuja (Nigeria)
  19. Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom)
  20. Ceará State Meteorology and Water Resources Foundation, Fortaleza (Brazil)
  21. Hydro Tasmania, Hobart, TAS (Australia)
  22. Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC (Canada). Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
  23. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi (Kenya)
  24. Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta (Nigeria)
  25. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping (Sweden)
  26. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  27. University of Brasilia (Brazil)
  28. Univ. of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS (Australia)
  29. University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom;
  30. California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab. (JPL)
+ Show Author Affiliations

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

Research Organization:
Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); NERC; Helmholtz Young Investigator Group; UK Global Challenges Research Fund; Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND) of Nigeria; NERSC; European Research Council (ERC); Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0020324; NE/P00678/1; NE/P018637/1; VH-NG-1243; NE/P021077/1; TETFund/DR&D/CE/NRF/STI/73/VOL.1; EP/R023484/1; EP/G037787/1; 389730 295
OSTI ID:
1980905
Journal Information:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 103, Issue 6; ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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