Revisiting ENSO and IOD Contributions to Australian Precipitation

Liguori, Giovanni; McGregor, Shayne; Singh, Martin; Arblaster, Julie; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

doi:10.1029/2021gl094295

Title: Revisiting ENSO and IOD Contributions to Australian Precipitation

Journal Article · 12 December 2021 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094295 · OSTI ID:1978516

^[1];

^[2];

^[3];

^[4]

Monash Univ. (Australia); Univ. of Bologna (Italy); OSTI
Monash Univ. (Australia)
Monash Univ. (Australia); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co-variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co-variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modeling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Here, inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1978516

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 49; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (37)

How did ocean warming affect Australian rainfall extremes during the 2010/2011 La Niña event?: OCEAN WARMING AND AUSTRALIAN EXTREMES Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Sen Gupta, Alexander; England, Matthew H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl065948	journal	November 2015
Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships Stuecker, Malte F.; Timmermann, Axel; Jin, Fei‐Fei Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl072308	journal	March 2017
The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus: Recent Global Warming Hiatus Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074273	journal	August 2017
Influence of climate variability on seasonal extremes over Australia: SEASONAL EXTREMES OVER AUSTRALIA Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Whetton, Penny Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50164	journal	January 2013
Impacts of Indian and Atlantic oceans on ENSO in a comprehensive modeling framework Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Prodhomme, Chloé Climate Dynamics, Vol. 46, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2715-x	journal	July 2015
Interbasin coupling between the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean on interannual timescale: observation and CMIP5 reproduction Ha, Kyung-Ja; Chu, Jung-Eun; Lee, June-Yi Climate Dynamics, Vol. 48, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3087-6	journal	March 2016
Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 48, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3199-z	journal	June 2016
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century Rayner, N. A. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670	journal	January 2003
What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts? Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; England, Matthew H.; McIntosh, Peter C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036801	journal	January 2009
Separating the North and South Pacific Meridional Modes Contributions to ENSO and Tropical Decadal Variability Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080320	journal	January 2019
Causal Links on Interannual Timescale Between ENSO and the IOD in CMIP5 Future Simulations Le, Thanh; Bae, Deg‐Hyo Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081633	journal	March 2019
Indian Ocean Warming Trend Reduces Pacific Warming Response to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases: An Interbasin Thermostat Mechanism Zhang, Lei; Han, Weiqing; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084088	journal	October 2019
Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using Seasonally Modulated ENSO Forcing Forecasts Zhao, Sen; Jin, Fei‐Fei; Stuecker, Malte F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084196	journal	August 2019
Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends Nicholls, Neville Nature, Vol. 387, Issue 6632 https://doi.org/10.1038/387484a0	journal	May 1997
A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean Saji, N. H.; Goswami, B. N.; Vinayachandran, P. N. Nature, Vol. 401, Issue 6751 https://doi.org/10.1038/43854	journal	September 1999
Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean Abram, Nerilie J.; Gagan, Michael K.; Cole, Julia E. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo357	journal	November 2008
Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño Izumo, Takeshi; Vialard, Jérôme; Lengaigne, Matthieu Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo760	journal	February 2010
Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium Abram, Nerilie J.; Wright, Nicky M.; Ellis, Bethany Nature, Vol. 579, Issue 7799 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2084-4	journal	March 2020
Statistical Evidence for Asymmetry in ENSO–IOD Interactions Lestari, R. Kartika; Koh, Tieh-Yong Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 54, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2016.1211084	journal	August 2016
Multi-decadal modulation of the El Niño–Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li, Yue Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034006	journal	July 2011
Pantropical climate interactions Cai, Wenju; Wu, Lixin; Lengaigne, Matthieu Science, Vol. 363, Issue 6430 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav4236	journal	February 2019
Remote Sea Surface Temperature Variations during ENSO: Evidence for a Tropical Atmospheric Bridge Klein, Stephen A.; Soden, Brian J.; Lau, Ngar-Cheung Journal of Climate, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0917:rsstvd>2.0.co;2	journal	April 1999
The Definition of El Niño Trenberth, Kevin E. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:tdoeno>2.0.co;2	journal	December 1997
On the Remote Drivers of Rainfall Variability in Australia Risbey, James S.; Pook, Michael J.; McIntosh, Peter C. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 137, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009mwr2861.1	journal	October 2009
Teleconnection Pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the Mechanisms for Impacts on Australian Rainfall Cai, Wenju; van Rensch, Peter; Cowan, Tim Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4129.1	journal	August 2011
The Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to ENSO: How Well Do We Know It and How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly? Deser, Clara; Simpson, Isla R.; McKinnon, Karen A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1	journal	July 2017
Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet Yang, Dongxia; Arblaster, Julie M.; Meehl, Gerald A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 33, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0604.1	journal	July 2020
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
Corrigendum Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Briggs, Peter R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00229.1	journal	July 2011
Impact of Indo-Pacific Feedback Interactions on ENSO Dynamics Diagnosed Using Ensemble Climate Simulations Santoso, A.; England, M. H.; Cai, W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00287.1	journal	November 2012
Pacific Ocean Contribution to the Asymmetry in Eastern Indian Ocean Variability Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Schwarzkopf, Franziska U.; Meyers, Gary Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00673.1	journal	February 2013
Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Vialard, Jérome Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0481.1	journal	January 2016
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons Huang, Boyin; Thorne, Peter W.; Banzon, Viva F. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0836.1	journal	October 2017
Australian Rainfall and Surface Temperature Variations Associated with the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Hendon, Harry H.; Thompson, David W. J.; Wheeler, Matthew C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4134.1	journal	June 2007
The Years of El Niño, La Niña, and Interactions with the Tropical Indian Ocean Meyers, Gary; McIntosh, Peter; Pigot, Lidia Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4152.1	journal	July 2007
A Look at the Relationship between the ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Ashok, Karumuri; Guan, Zhaoyong; Yamagata, Toshio Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 81, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.81.41	journal	January 2003
High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia Jones, D.; Wang, W.; Fawcett, R. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, Vol. 58, Issue 04 https://doi.org/10.22499/2.5804.003	journal	December 2009

Similar Records

Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships

Journal Article · 2017 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:1465346

Stuecker, Malte F.; Timmermann, Axel; Jin, Fei-Fei; +5 more

Tropical Indian Ocean Mediates ENSO Influence Over Central Southwest Asia During the Wet Season

Journal Article · 2020 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:1664622

Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Kucharski, Fred; +2 more

Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models

Journal Article · 2016 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1565518

Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Vialard, Jérome; +2 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Australian precipitation
CESM
ENSO
IOD
SST nudging
geology
partial regression analysis

Title: Revisiting ENSO and IOD Contributions to Australian Precipitation

Citation Formats

References (37)

Similar Records

Related Subjects