Search Menu
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Search Scholarly Publications

Title: Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

Journal Article · · Applied Energy
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [1];  [1]
  1. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  2. ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ (United States)
  3. Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)
  4. Independent Consultant, New York, NY (United States)
  5. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1975549
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-82531; MainId:83304; UUID:c715380a-34db-481c-ae2f-9efa836e0ee5; MainAdminID:69599
Journal Information:
Applied Energy, Vol. 344; ISSN 0306-2619
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (24)

Representing the costs of low-carbon power generation in multi-region multi-sector energy-economic models journal August 2019
Advanced technologies in energy-economy models for climate change assessment journal May 2019
Scenarios for the Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage in the Power Sector in a Portfolio of Mitigation Options journal November 2020
Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models journal April 2022
System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables? journal December 2013
Why Wind Is Not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity Generation journal July 2016
The impacts on climate mitigation costs of considering curtailment and storage of variable renewable energy in a general equilibrium model journal May 2017
Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment journal January 2016
The role of cross-border electricity trade in transition to a low-carbon economy in the Northeastern U.S journal July 2021
A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system journal May 2017
Fossil energy deployment through midcentury consistent with 2°C climate stabilization journal December 2021
System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches journal May 2017
An improved global wind resource estimate for integrated assessment models journal May 2017
Integration costs revisited – An economic framework for wind and solar variability journal February 2015
Decarbonizing global power supply under region-specific consideration of challenges and options of integrating variable renewables in the REMIND model journal May 2017
Quantifying value and representing competitiveness of electricity system technologies in economic models journal January 2023
Including system integration of variable renewable energies in a constant elasticity of substitution framework: The case of the WITCH model journal May 2017
Storage as a flexibility option in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources: a POLES-based analysis journal May 2017
Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction journal May 2017
The GTAP Data Base: Version 10 journal June 2019
The role of input assumptions and model structures in projections of variable renewable energy: A multi-model perspective of the U.S. electricity system journal October 2018
Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER, an aggregated energy system simulation model journal May 2017
An evaluation of electricity system technology competitiveness metrics: The case for profitability journal May 2021
Application of a high-detail energy system model to derive power sector characteristics at high wind and solar shares journal May 2017

Similar Records

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
climate change
computable general equilibrium model
decarbonization
power sector
renewable integration