DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)

Journal Article · · Atmosphere (Basel)
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom); Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden); University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD (Australia)
  3. PAR Associates, Las Cruces, NM (United States)
  4. Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS (Canada)

We compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced from the observed temperature much better than the CESM2. The correlation coefficient within the 1970–2012 time period between CESM1-simulated AA and the observed one is 0.47, while the CESM2 simulation leads to an anticorrelation of r = –0.53. Even the more successful model (CESM1) is not able to reproduce recent high AA values of 4–5. The main cause of this failure is the model’s overestimate of the rate of increase in the mean global temperature in years post 1990. When the CESM1 model’s simulated trend of the mean global temperature is replaced in the expression for the AA by the observed temperature trend, the correlation coefficient increases from 0.47 to 0.75. The CESM1 model is among the best north American models in AA simulation while the CESM2 model is among the least successful.

Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
Grant/Contract Number:
89233218CNA000001
OSTI ID:
1975057
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1992272
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-23-24208; LA-UR-22-32429
Journal Information:
Atmosphere (Basel), Vol. 14, Issue 5; ISSN 2073-4433
Publisher:
MDPICopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (27)

CO 2 Increase Experiments Using the CESM: Relationship to Climate Sensitivity and Comparison of CESM1 to CESM2 journal November 2020
Arctic air temperature change amplification and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal January 2009
Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models journal July 2022
Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic Surface Air Temperature and Sea Ice Variability journal December 2011
Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea journal January 2011
Objectively combining climate sensitivity evidence journal September 2022
Indirect Aerosol Effect Increases CMIP5 Models’ Projected Arctic Warming journal February 2016
High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) journal July 2019
Exceptional warming over the Barents area journal June 2022
The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification journal April 2010
Polar amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks journal November 2018
Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models journal January 2020
Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis journal May 2011
Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean journal April 2017
Regional Features of the Arctic Sea Ice Area Changes in 2000–2019 versus 1979–1999 Periods journal September 2022
Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends: Coverage Bias in the HadCRUT4 Temperature Series journal February 2014
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 journal August 2022
High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate journal April 2020
Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models journal February 2014
Arctic amplification of climate change: a review of underlying mechanisms journal September 2021
Pacific decadal climate variability: Indices, patterns and tropical-extratropical interactions journal August 2017
Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification: SEA ICE LOSS AND ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION journal November 2010
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) journal February 2020
Increased ocean heat transport into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean over the period 1993–2016 journal November 2020
Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2 journal January 2019
Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem journal May 2022
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO 2 emission journal November 2016