Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)

Chylek, Petr; Folland, Chris; Klett, James D.; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra Krishna

doi:10.3390/atmos14050820

Title: Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)

Journal Article · 02 May 2023 · Atmosphere (Basel)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050820 · OSTI ID:1975057

^[1]; Folland, Chris ^[2]; Klett, James D. ^[3]; Lesins, Glen ^[4];

^[1]

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom); Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden); University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD (Australia)
PAR Associates, Las Cruces, NM (United States)
Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS (Canada)

We compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced from the observed temperature much better than the CESM2. The correlation coefficient within the 1970–2012 time period between CESM1-simulated AA and the observed one is 0.47, while the CESM2 simulation leads to an anticorrelation of r = –0.53. Even the more successful model (CESM1) is not able to reproduce recent high AA values of 4–5. The main cause of this failure is the model’s overestimate of the rate of increase in the mean global temperature in years post 1990. When the CESM1 model’s simulated trend of the mean global temperature is replaced in the expression for the AA by the observed temperature trend, the correlation coefficient increases from 0.47 to 0.75. The CESM1 model is among the best north American models in AA simulation while the CESM2 model is among the least successful.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1975057

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-22-32429; LA-UR-23-24208

Journal Information:: Atmosphere (Basel), Journal Name: Atmosphere (Basel) Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 14; ISSN 2073-4433

Publisher:: MDPICopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Arctic amplification
Artic climate
CESM1
CESM2
Climate models
Earth Sciences

Title: Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)

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References (27)

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