Title: The Relationship Between African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones in Historical and Future Climates in the HighResMIP‐PRIMAVERA Simulations

Journal Article · · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]
  1. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
  2. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University Ames IA USA
  3. Computational Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Berkeley CA USA
  4. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA, Department of Earth and Planetary Science University of California, Berkeley Berkeley CA USA
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Abstract The deadly and destructive nature of tropical cyclones (TCs) makes understanding their response to future climate change of the utmost importance. TC genesis hinges on multiple factors, including an initial disturbance. African easterly waves (AEWs) have been shown to serve as such disturbances for TCs developing in the North Atlantic. It is therefore crucial to understand the relationship between AEWs and TCs and how this relationship may be affected by climate change. In this study, we examine the AEW‐TC relationship in historical and future climates using three models from the HighResMIP PRIMAVERA simulations. The AEWs and TCs were tracked in the model data using objective tracking algorithms, and AEW and TC tracks were then matched together if they were close to each other in space and time. The strength of the AEWs was measured using the eddy kinetic energy and the curvature vorticity of the waves. TC strength and intensity were measured using potential intensity and lifetime maximum 10 m windspeed. We found that future changes in the frequency of AEWs are not a good indicator of future TC activity. However, AEW strength, as well as environmental conditions conducive to strong TCs, are good indicators of AEWs that develop into TCs in both historical and future climates.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities (SUF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; SC0021109
OSTI ID:
1968899
Journal Information:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 128; ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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